New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Spencer RattlerPassing26/42, 240 YDS, 1 TD
- Clyde Edwards-HelaireRushing8 CAR, 26 YDS
- Juwan JohnsonReceiving6 REC, 80 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing21/32, 221 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing19 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- Mike EvansReceiving9 REC, 89 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:51Bucky Irving 11 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)19–27
- Q410:09Jalen McMillan 32 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)19–20
- Q35:53Blake Grupe 49 Yd Field Goal19–13
- Q310:27Payne Durham 6 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)16–13
- Q20:07Blake Grupe 39 Yd Field Goal16–6
- Q21:03Chase McLaughlin 25 Yd Field Goal13–6
- Q26:14Dante Pettis 5 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)13–3
- Q214:52Blake Grupe 39 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q14:51Chase McLaughlin 52 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q19:16Blake Grupe 35 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:14Dante Pettis 5 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 13 – 3 TB · NO 24% → 45% +21NO 24% → 45%+21 pts
- Q310:27Payne Durham 6 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)NO 16 – 13 TB · TB 43% → 69% +26TB 43% → 69%+26 pts
- Q35:53Blake Grupe 49 Yd Field GoalNO 19 – 13 TB · NO 35% → 47% +12NO 35% → 47%+12 pts
- Q410:09Jalen McMillan 32 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)NO 19 – 20 TB · TB 34% → 74% +41TB 34% → 74%+41 pts
- Q41:51Bucky Irving 11 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)NO 19 – 27 TB · TB 72% → >99% +28TB 72% → >99%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- TB -14.5
- ML NO +750 / TB -1400
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -12
- TB 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- TB: Elo 84.5%, market 88.8%
- Fair odds
- TB -771
- NO +771 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 15.0 – 29.5 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −101 | — | NO: Spencer Rattler, usually Derek Carr · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +295 Elo | TB 84.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 81.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 83.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 88.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3219.9 | Points scored | 29.74th of 32 |
| 18th of 3223.2 | Points allowed | 22.917th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−3.3 | Margin | +6.87th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.31 | Yards per play | 6.214th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.75 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5119th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–5 | Road vs home | 4–417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–10 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–2 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.