Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Marcus MariotaPassing15/18, 161 YDS, 2 TD
- Marcus MariotaRushing5 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- Terry McLaurinReceiving8 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
Cowboys- Trey LancePassing20/34, 244 YDS
- Rico DowdleRushing22 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- Jalen TolbertReceiving4 REC, 98 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:03Terry McLaurin 5 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Zane Gonzalez Kick)23–19
- Q47:02Rico Dowdle 2 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)16–19
- Q411:18Marcus Mariota 5 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–12
- Q413:53Brandon Aubrey 22 Yd Field Goal10–12
- Q35:07Zach Ertz 5 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Zane Gonzalez Kick)10–9
- Q38:52Brandon Aubrey 36 Yd Field Goal3–9
- Q24:40Zane Gonzalez 47 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q212:41Brandon Aubrey 41 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q18:20Brandon Aubrey 34 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:07Zach Ertz 5 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Zane Gonzalez Kick)WSH 10 – 9 DAL · WSH 38% → 67% +30WSH 38% → 67%+30 pts
- Q413:53Brandon Aubrey 22 Yd Field GoalWSH 10 – 12 DAL · DAL 34% → 49% +15DAL 34% → 49%+15 pts
- Q411:18Marcus Mariota 5 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)WSH 16 – 12 DAL · WSH 49% → 80% +31WSH 49% → 80%+31 pts
- Q47:02Rico Dowdle 2 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)WSH 16 – 19 DAL · DAL 17% → 64% +46DAL 17% → 64%+46 pts
- Q40:03Terry McLaurin 5 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Zane Gonzalez Kick)WSH 23 – 19 DAL · WSH <1% → 100% +100WSH <1% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Commanders 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -7.5
- ML WSH -300 / DAL +250
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -5
- WSH 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 67.2%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -258
- DAL +258 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 25.5 – 18.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +38 | −111 | WSH: Jayden Daniels · DAL: Trey Lance, usually Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +124 Elo | WSH 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 67.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 72.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3228.9 | Points scored | 20.721st of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.3 | Points allowed | 27.831st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.6 | Margin | −7.127th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.75 | Yards per play | 5.0424th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.43 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8228th of 32 |
| 7th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 14th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 2–627th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–5 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–3 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–3 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.