Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Cooper RushPassing15/28, 147 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rico DowdleRushing23 CAR, 104 YDS
- Brandin CooksReceiving4 REC, 52 YDS
Eagles- Kenny PickettPassing10/15, 143 YDS, 1 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing31 CAR, 167 YDS
- DeVonta SmithReceiving6 REC, 120 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q410:03DeVonta Smith 25 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Jake Elliott Kick)7–41
- Q32:44A.J. Brown 20 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Jake Elliott Kick)7–34
- Q38:03Jake Elliott 26 Yd Field Goal7–27
- Q20:00Kenny Pickett 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)7–24
- Q21:55Jake Elliott 31 Yd Field Goal7–17
- Q26:38DeVonta Smith 22 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Jake Elliott Kick)7–14
- Q15:38Jalen Tolbert 4 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–7
- Q111:43C.J. Gardner-Johnson 69 Yd Interception Return (Jake Elliott Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:43C.J. Gardner-Johnson 69 Yd Interception Return (Jake Elliott Kick)DAL 0 – 7 PHI · PHI 74% → 86% +12PHI 74% → 86%+12 pts
- Q15:38Jalen Tolbert 4 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 7 – 7 PHI · DAL 14% → 27% +13DAL 14% → 27%+13 pts
- Q26:38DeVonta Smith 22 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Jake Elliott Kick)DAL 7 – 14 PHI · PHI 70% → 86% +16PHI 70% → 86%+16 pts
- Q21:55Jake Elliott 31 Yd Field GoalDAL 7 – 17 PHI · PHI 86% → 91% +5PHI 86% → 91%+5 pts
- Q20:00Kenny Pickett 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)DAL 7 – 24 PHI · PHI 91% → 98% +6PHI 91% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -7.5
- ML DAL +280 / PHI -360
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -6
- PHI 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 69.6%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- PHI -292
- DAL +292 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 15.0 – 22.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1680 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −68 | −110 | DAL: Cooper Rush, usually Dak Prescott · PHI: Kenny Pickett, usually Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +144 Elo | PHI 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 70.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 74.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3221.6 | Points scored | 26.88th of 32 |
| 30th of 3226.9 | Points allowed | 18.94th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−5.3 | Margin | +7.96th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.08 | Yards per play | 5.6511th of 32 |
| 30th of 325.80 | Yards allowed per play | 4.781st of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 7th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 5–14th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–8 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–2 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.