Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing35/55, 328 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing10 CAR, 38 YDS
- Tetairoa McMillanReceiving6 REC, 100 YDS
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing17/25, 220 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- James ConnerRushing11 CAR, 34 YDS, 1 TD
- Trey McBrideReceiving6 REC, 78 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:58Hunter Renfrow 1 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)22–27
- Q45:05Chuba Hubbard 5 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)15–27
- Q32:06Hunter Renfrow 4 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)9–27
- Q39:23James Conner 2 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)3–27
- Q20:04Michael Wilson 11 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)3–20
- Q21:55Chad Ryland 47 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q10:50Ryan Fitzgerald 27 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q15:19Chad Ryland 29 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q113:27Zaven Collins 3 Yd Fumble Return (Chad Ryland Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:27Zaven Collins 3 Yd Fumble Return (Chad Ryland Kick)CAR 0 – 7 ARI · ARI 74% → 86% +12ARI 74% → 86%+12 pts
- Q15:19Chad Ryland 29 Yd Field GoalCAR 0 – 10 ARI · ARI 86% → 90% +4ARI 86% → 90%+4 pts
- Q10:50Ryan Fitzgerald 27 Yd Field GoalCAR 3 – 10 ARI · CAR 10% → 14% +4CAR 10% → 14%+4 pts
- Q21:55Chad Ryland 47 Yd Field GoalCAR 3 – 13 ARI · ARI 86% → 91% +5ARI 86% → 91%+5 pts
- Q20:04Michael Wilson 11 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)CAR 3 – 20 ARI · ARI 91% → 98% +6ARI 91% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- ARI -6.5
- ML CAR +270 / ARI -340
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI -7
- ARI 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 72.6%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -284
- CAR +284 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 19.5 – 26.0 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1352 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | +20 | CAR: Bryce Young · ARI: Kyler Murray (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +170 Elo | ARI 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 72.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 74.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3220.1 | Points scored | 23.512th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3231.4 | Points allowed | 22.315th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−11.4 | Margin | +1.214th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.10 | Yards per play | 5.887th of 32 |
| 32nd of 325.96 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5723rd of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–6 | Road vs home | 6–39th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 15252nd of 32 |
| 30th of 321352 | Elo rating | 146819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CAR |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–3 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–0 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.