Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing21/29, 163 YDS, 2 TD
- Trey BensonRushing8 CAR, 69 YDS
- Marvin Harrison Jr.Receiving5 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
Saints- Spencer RattlerPassing27/46, 214 YDS
- Alvin KamaraRushing11 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- Juwan JohnsonReceiving8 REC, 76 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:42Blake Grupe 28 Yd Field Goal20–13
- Q39:16Chad Ryland 50 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q20:28James Conner 4 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)17–10
- Q24:58Blake Grupe 36 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q210:05Marvin Harrison Jr. 1 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)10–7
- Q214:20Alvin Kamara 18 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)3–7
- Q15:03Chad Ryland 42 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:03Chad Ryland 42 Yd Field GoalARI 3 – 0 NO · ARI 67% → 74% +7ARI 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q214:20Alvin Kamara 18 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)ARI 3 – 7 NO · NO 26% → 45% +19NO 26% → 45%+19 pts
- Q210:05Marvin Harrison Jr. 1 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 10 – 7 NO · ARI 53% → 73% +20ARI 53% → 73%+20 pts
- Q24:58Blake Grupe 36 Yd Field GoalARI 10 – 10 NO · NO 27% → 36% +9NO 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q20:28James Conner 4 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 17 – 10 NO · ARI 63% → 83% +20ARI 63% → 83%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- ARI -5.5
- ML ARI -250 / NO +210
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI -4
- ARI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 63.2%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -217
- NO +217 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 25.0 – 19.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +22 | −90 | ARI: Kyler Murray · NO: Spencer Rattler, usually Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +94 Elo | ARI 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 64.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 68.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3223.5 | Points scored | 19.924th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 23.419th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+1.2 | Margin | −3.522nd of 32 |
| 7th of 325.88 | Yards per play | 5.2717th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.57 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7728th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–6 | Road vs home | 3–623rd of 32 |
| 4th of 321520 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 32 |
| 20th of 321450 | Elo rating | 143125th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  ARI |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–6 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.