Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing22/34, 237 YDS, 2 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing13 CAR, 85 YDS, 2 TD
- Mack HollinsReceiving3 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing18/26, 245 YDS, 1 TD
- Kareem HuntRushing17 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- Xavier WorthyReceiving6 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:33Harrison Butker 35 Yd Field Goal29–32
- Q46:15Curtis Samuel 4 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)29–29
- Q410:14Patrick Mahomes 10 Yd Rush (Patrick Mahomes Pass to Justin Watson for Two-Point Conversion)22–29
- Q32:56James Cook 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–21
- Q20:23Mack Hollins 34 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)16–21
- Q21:55Patrick Mahomes 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)10–21
- Q24:13Xavier Worthy 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)10–14
- Q210:25James Cook 6 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)10–7
- Q13:45Tyler Bass 53 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q18:56Kareem Hunt 12 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:13Xavier Worthy 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)BUF 10 – 14 KC · KC 41% → 64% +23KC 41% → 64%+23 pts
- Q32:56James Cook 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)BUF 22 – 21 KC · BUF 28% → 54% +26BUF 28% → 54%+26 pts
- Q410:14Patrick Mahomes 10 Yd Rush (Patrick Mahomes Pass to Justin Watson for Two-Point Conversion)BUF 22 – 29 KC · KC 45% → 86% +41KC 45% → 86%+41 pts
- Q46:15Curtis Samuel 4 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 29 – 29 KC · BUF 8% → 49% +41BUF 8% → 49%+41 pts
- Q43:33Harrison Butker 35 Yd Field GoalBUF 29 – 32 KC · KC 50% → 78% +28KC 50% → 78%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- KC -2.5
- ML BUF -104 / KC -116
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -1.5
- KC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- KC: Elo 55.5%, market 51.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -107
- BUF +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 23.5 – 26.0 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1729 | 1722 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +9 | BUF: Josh Allen · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +38 Elo | KC 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3230.9 | Points scored | 22.615th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.6 | Points allowed | 19.24th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+9.2 | Margin | +3.511th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.96 | Yards per play | 5.1123rd of 32 |
| 21st of 325.52 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3112th of 32 |
| 4th of 328–2 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–6 | 4–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 8–4 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5 | 4–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–1 KC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.