Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Carson WentzPassing10/17, 98 YDS
- Carson SteeleRushing8 CAR, 25 YDS
- Nikko RemigioReceiving2 REC, 48 YDS
Broncos- Bo NixPassing26/29, 321 YDS, 4 TD
- Bo NixRushing7 CAR, 47 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving5 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q49:40Audric Estime 1 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)0–38
- Q32:49Marvin Mims Jr. 7 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)0–31
- Q20:03Wil Lutz 33 Yd Field Goal0–24
- Q26:46Devaughn Vele 3 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)0–21
- Q14:53Courtland Sutton 10 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)0–14
- Q111:55Marvin Mims Jr. 32 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:55Marvin Mims Jr. 32 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)KC 0 – 7 DEN · DEN 80% → 90% +10DEN 80% → 90%+10 pts
- Q14:53Courtland Sutton 10 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)KC 0 – 14 DEN · DEN 90% → 96% +6DEN 90% → 96%+6 pts
- Q26:46Devaughn Vele 3 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)KC 0 – 21 DEN · DEN 96% → >99% +3DEN 96% → >99%+3 pts
- Q20:03Wil Lutz 33 Yd Field GoalKC 0 – 24 DEN · DEN >99% → >99% +0DEN >99% → >99%+0 pts
- Q32:49Marvin Mims Jr. 7 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)KC 0 – 31 DEN · DEN >99% → >99% +0DEN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -11.5
- ML KC +450 / DEN -700
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -1
- DEN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −37.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 45.6%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- DEN -422
- KC +422 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 14.5 – 26.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1760 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −135 | −8 | KC: Carson Wentz, usually Patrick Mahomes · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +31 Elo | KC 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 80.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3224.1 | Points scored | 24.210th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3218.0 | Points allowed | 19.45th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+6.1 | Margin | +4.811th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.17 | Yards per play | 5.1323rd of 32 |
| 8th of 325.21 | Yards allowed per play | 4.992nd of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–1 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 10–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 7–0 |
| Underdog | — | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–1 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.