Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing13/22, 144 YDS, 1 TD
- Bo NixRushing4 CAR, 43 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving5 REC, 75 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing20/26, 272 YDS, 2 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing23 CAR, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- Curtis SamuelReceiving3 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:37Tyler Bass 34 Yd Field Goal7–31
- Q414:49Curtis Samuel 55 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)7–28
- Q33:06Ty Johnson 24 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Josh Allen Pass to Keon Coleman for Two-Point Conversion)7–21
- Q310:03Tyler Bass 27 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q212:57James Cook 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)7–10
- Q17:07Tyler Bass 26 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q112:36Troy Franklin 43 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:36Troy Franklin 43 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 7 – 0 BUF · DEN 24% → 40% +16DEN 24% → 40%+16 pts
- Q17:07Tyler Bass 26 Yd Field GoalDEN 7 – 3 BUF · BUF 58% → 66% +8BUF 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q212:57James Cook 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)DEN 7 – 10 BUF · BUF 62% → 80% +17BUF 62% → 80%+17 pts
- Q310:03Tyler Bass 27 Yd Field GoalDEN 7 – 13 BUF · BUF 78% → 85% +8BUF 78% → 85%+8 pts
- Q33:06Ty Johnson 24 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Josh Allen Pass to Keon Coleman for Two-Point Conversion)DEN 7 – 21 BUF · BUF 86% → 98% +12BUF 86% → 98%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -7.5
- ML DEN +320 / BUF -425
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -4.5
- BUF 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.9 pts
- BUF: Elo 65.4%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -325
- DEN +325 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 20.5 – 28.0 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1618 | 1690 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −3 | — | DEN: Bo Nix · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +111 Elo | BUF 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 63.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 76.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.0 | Points scored | 30.92nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3218.3 | Points allowed | 21.611th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+6.7 | Margin | +9.23rd of 32 |
| 19th of 325.23 | Yards per play | 5.966th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.93 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5221st of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–4 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–0 | 7–4 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.