Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing19/28, 245 YDS
- Joe MixonRushing18 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- Nico CollinsReceiving5 REC, 81 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing16/25, 177 YDS, 1 TD
- Kareem HuntRushing8 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis KelceReceiving7 REC, 117 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:11Matt Araiza Ran Out of Bounds in End Zone, Forced by Del'Shawn Phillips, for a Safety14–23
- Q44:38Harrison Butker 27 Yd Field Goal12–23
- Q411:52Travis Kelce 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)12–20
- Q34:36Joe Mixon 13 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn PAT Failed)12–13
- Q20:16Ka'imi Fairbairn 48 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q24:36Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)3–13
- Q13:59Harrison Butker 36 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q18:41Ka'imi Fairbairn 30 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q113:58Harrison Butker 32 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:41Ka'imi Fairbairn 30 Yd Field GoalHOU 3 – 3 KC · HOU 15% → 21% +5HOU 15% → 21%+5 pts
- Q13:59Harrison Butker 36 Yd Field GoalHOU 3 – 6 KC · KC 78% → 84% +6KC 78% → 84%+6 pts
- Q24:36Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)HOU 3 – 13 KC · KC 82% → 93% +11KC 82% → 93%+11 pts
- Q34:36Joe Mixon 13 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn PAT Failed)HOU 12 – 13 KC · HOU 10% → 27% +17HOU 10% → 27%+17 pts
- Q411:52Travis Kelce 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)HOU 12 – 20 KC · KC 70% → 94% +23KC 70% → 94%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- KC -9.5
- ML HOU +400 / KC -600
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -8
- KC 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- KC: Elo 75.4%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -418
- HOU +418 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 16.0 – 25.5 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1709 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +9 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +194 Elo | KC 75.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 73.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 80.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3221.9 | Points scored | 22.615th of 32 |
| 14th of 3221.9 | Points allowed | 19.24th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +3.511th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.14 | Yards per play | 5.1123rd of 32 |
| 4th of 325.10 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3112th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–8 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–10 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.