Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- Davis MillsPassing12/22, 128 YDS
- Dameon PierceRushing19 CAR, 176 YDS, 1 TD
- Robert WoodsReceiving2 REC, 39 YDS
Titans- Will LevisPassing9/17, 175 YDS, 1 TD
- Tony PollardRushing22 CAR, 62 YDS
- Calvin RidleyReceiving3 REC, 76 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:41Tay Martin 49 Yd pass from Will Levis (Will Levis Pass to Josh Whyle for Two-Point Conversion)23–14
- Q413:50Derek Barnett 36 Yd Fumble Recovery (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)23–6
- Q36:47Matthew Wright 38 Yd Field Goal16–6
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 27 Yd Field Goal16–3
- Q21:41Matthew Wright 35 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q213:55Dameon Pierce 92 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn PAT Failed)13–0
- Q17:43Nico Collins 2 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:43Nico Collins 2 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 7 – 0 TEN · HOU 45% → 63% +18HOU 45% → 63%+18 pts
- Q213:55Dameon Pierce 92 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn PAT Failed)HOU 13 – 0 TEN · HOU 66% → 80% +14HOU 66% → 80%+14 pts
- Q21:41Matthew Wright 35 Yd Field GoalHOU 13 – 3 TEN · TEN 15% → 22% +7TEN 15% → 22%+7 pts
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 27 Yd Field GoalHOU 16 – 3 TEN · HOU 79% → 86% +7HOU 79% → 86%+7 pts
- Q413:50Derek Barnett 36 Yd Fumble Recovery (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 23 – 6 TEN · HOU 89% → 98% +9HOU 89% → 98%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Titans 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- TEN -2.5
- ML HOU +130 / TEN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TEN 26%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -8
- TEN 24%
- Ratings vs. market
- −33.7 pts
- TEN: Elo 24.3%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- TEN -124
- HOU +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 17.0 – 19.5 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 36.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1269 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +5 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · TEN: Will Levis (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +197 Elo | HOU 75.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 74.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEN 55.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3221.8 | Points scored | 18.625th of 32 |
| 16th of 3222.4 | Points allowed | 27.330th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −8.830th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.06 | Yards per play | 5.0027th of 32 |
| 4th of 325.09 | Yards allowed per play | 5.186th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 16th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 1–630th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–8 | 2–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–8 |
| Overs–unders | 4–10 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–1 TEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.