Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing18/25, 254 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing16 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- Isaiah LikelyReceiving4 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
Bills- Josh AllenPassing16/22, 127 YDS
- James Cook IIIRushing17 CAR, 67 YDS
- Khalil ShakirReceiving6 REC, 67 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:33Isaiah Likely 24 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–27
- Q43:29Tyler Bass 21 Yd Field Goal19–27
- Q412:04Tyler Bass 51 Yd Field Goal19–24
- Q31:37Derrick Henry 5 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–21
- Q39:47Justin Tucker 47 Yd Field Goal13–21
- Q20:16Josh Allen 4 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)10–21
- Q23:43Justin Tucker 26 Yd Field Goal10–14
- Q28:52Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)7–14
- Q14:43Ray Davis 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)7–7
- Q110:40Rashod Bateman 16 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:43Ray Davis 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)BAL 7 – 7 BUF · BUF 29% → 47% +18BUF 29% → 47%+18 pts
- Q28:52Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)BAL 7 – 14 BUF · BUF 48% → 69% +21BUF 48% → 69%+21 pts
- Q20:16Josh Allen 4 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)BAL 10 – 21 BUF · BUF 62% → 82% +20BUF 62% → 82%+20 pts
- Q31:37Derrick Henry 5 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)BAL 19 – 21 BUF · BAL 18% → 42% +24BAL 18% → 42%+24 pts
- Q41:33Isaiah Likely 24 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)BAL 25 – 27 BUF · BAL <1% → 22% +22BAL <1% → 22%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -1.5
- ML BAL -125 / BUF +105
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -0.5
- BAL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 47.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -112
- BUF +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 26.5 – 25.0 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1732 | 1716 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | — | BAL: Lamar Jackson · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +17 Elo | BUF 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 51.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3230.5 | Points scored | 30.92nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3221.2 | Points allowed | 21.611th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+9.2 | Margin | +9.23rd of 32 |
| 1st of 326.85 | Yards per play | 5.966th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.19 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5221st of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–3 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–6 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–6 | 8–4 |
| Underdog | — | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–4 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.