New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Spencer RattlerPassing18/27, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- Alvin KamaraRushing15 CAR, 70 YDS
- Rashid ShaheedReceiving4 REC, 47 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing16/22, 209 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing22 CAR, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- Khalil ShakirReceiving5 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:09Matt Prater 35 Yd Field Goal19–31
- Q47:07Dalton Kincaid 28 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)19–28
- Q48:53Blake Grupe 35 Yd Field Goal19–21
- Q30:14Chris Olave 3 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)16–21
- Q36:42Josh Allen 5 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)10–21
- Q25:31Blake Grupe 54 Yd Field Goal10–14
- Q12:29James Cook 1 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)7–14
- Q16:46Kendre Miller 18 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)7–7
- Q110:49Khalil Shakir 43 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:29James Cook 1 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)NO 7 – 14 BUF · BUF 87% → 95% +8BUF 87% → 95%+8 pts
- Q36:42Josh Allen 5 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)NO 10 – 21 BUF · BUF 88% → 97% +9BUF 88% → 97%+9 pts
- Q30:14Chris Olave 3 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)NO 16 – 21 BUF · NO 2% → 10% +8NO 2% → 10%+8 pts
- Q48:53Blake Grupe 35 Yd Field GoalNO 19 – 21 BUF · NO 10% → 21% +11NO 10% → 21%+11 pts
- Q47:07Dalton Kincaid 28 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)NO 19 – 28 BUF · BUF 79% → 98% +19BUF 79% → 98%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -14.5
- ML NO +800 / BUF -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -16.5
- BUF 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- BUF: Elo 91.3%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- BUF -861
- NO +861 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 17.0 – 31.5 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1679 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −69 | — | NO: Spencer Rattler, usually Derek Carr · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +409 Elo | BUF 91.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 89.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 90.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 89.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3215.7 | Points scored | 34.04th of 32 |
| 25th of 3230.0 | Points allowed | 23.720th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−14.3 | Margin | +10.33rd of 32 |
| 28th of 324.40 | Yards per play | 6.124th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.14 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5321st of 32 |
| 18th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 13th of 321521 | Opponent Elo | 147620th of 32 |
| 29th of 321376 | Elo rating | 16792nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  NO |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–10 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 8–4 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.