New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Spencer RattlerPassing28/39, 218 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Alvin KamaraRushing18 CAR, 42 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving10 REC, 57 YDS
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing14/18, 218 YDS, 2 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing16 CAR, 38 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving5 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q414:53Jack Stoll 13 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)13–44
- Q34:39Jason Myers 37 Yd Field Goal6–44
- Q311:29Jason Myers 46 Yd Field Goal6–41
- Q20:00Blake Grupe 23 Yd Field Goal6–38
- Q21:29Jason Myers 56 Yd Field Goal3–38
- Q27:42Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)3–35
- Q211:18Tory Horton 14 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)3–28
- Q212:47Blake Grupe 27 Yd Field Goal3–21
- Q14:22Kenneth Walker III 3 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)0–21
- Q17:31Tory Horton 95 Yd Punt Return (Jason Myers Kick)0–14
- Q19:48Jaxon Smith-Njigba 12 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:48Jaxon Smith-Njigba 12 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)NO 0 – 7 SEA · SEA 74% → 87% +12SEA 74% → 87%+12 pts
- Q17:31Tory Horton 95 Yd Punt Return (Jason Myers Kick)NO 0 – 14 SEA · SEA 87% → 94% +8SEA 87% → 94%+8 pts
- Q14:22Kenneth Walker III 3 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)NO 0 – 21 SEA · SEA 94% → 98% +4SEA 94% → 98%+4 pts
- Q212:47Blake Grupe 27 Yd Field GoalNO 3 – 21 SEA · NO 2% → 3% +1NO 2% → 3%+1 pts
- Q211:18Tory Horton 14 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)NO 3 – 28 SEA · SEA 97% → >99% +2SEA 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -6.5
- ML NO +280 / SEA -360
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -10
- SEA 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 81.2%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -306
- NO +306 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 17.5 – 24.0 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1390 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −73 | −12 | NO: Spencer Rattler, usually Derek Carr · SEA: Sam Darnold, usually Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +255 Elo | SEA 81.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 80.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 80.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 75.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3219.9 | Points scored | 22.118th of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.4 | Points allowed | 21.611th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−3.5 | Margin | +0.415th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.27 | Yards per play | 5.4813th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.77 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3111th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–6 | Road vs home | 3–623rd of 32 |
| 15th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150414th of 32 |
| 28th of 321390 | Elo rating | 154813th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  NO |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.