San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Mac JonesPassing26/39, 279 YDS, 3 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing13 CAR, 55 YDS
- Jauan JenningsReceiving5 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
Saints- Spencer RattlerPassing25/34, 207 YDS, 3 TD
- Alvin KamaraRushing21 CAR, 99 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving6 REC, 54 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:18Devaughn Vele 3 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)26–21
- Q412:18Jauan Jennings 42 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro Kick)26–14
- Q33:20Eddy Pineiro 46 Yd Field Goal19–14
- Q37:11Rashid Shaheed 3 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)16–14
- Q20:07Christian McCaffrey 7 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro Kick)16–7
- Q21:14Juwan Johnson 18 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)9–7
- Q211:23Eddy Pineiro 44 Yd Field Goal9–0
- Q13:25Luke Farrell 11 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro PAT Failed)6–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:25Luke Farrell 11 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro PAT Failed)SF 6 – 0 NO · SF 57% → 73% +15SF 57% → 73%+15 pts
- Q21:14Juwan Johnson 18 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)SF 9 – 7 NO · NO 18% → 37% +20NO 18% → 37%+20 pts
- Q20:07Christian McCaffrey 7 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 16 – 7 NO · SF 63% → 83% +20SF 63% → 83%+20 pts
- Q37:11Rashid Shaheed 3 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)SF 16 – 14 NO · NO 15% → 37% +22NO 15% → 37%+22 pts
- Q412:18Jauan Jennings 42 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 26 – 14 NO · SF 78% → 96% +18SF 78% → 96%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- SF -2.5
- ML SF -155 / NO +135
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -0.5
- SF 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- SF: Elo 48.9%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SF -139
- NO +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 21.5 – 19.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −140 | −83 | SF: Mac Jones, usually Brock Purdy · NO: Spencer Rattler, usually Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +8 Elo | NO 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 58.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.9 | Points scored | 19.924th of 32 |
| 29th of 3225.6 | Points allowed | 23.419th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−2.8 | Margin | −3.522nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.23 | Yards per play | 5.2717th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.24 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7728th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–6 | Road vs home | 3–623rd of 32 |
| 1st of 321524 | Opponent Elo | 149716th of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Elo rating | 141326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  SF |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–11 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 0–4 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.