Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing14/25, 148 YDS
- James Cook IIIRushing21 CAR, 132 YDS, 2 TD
- Joshua PalmerReceiving2 REC, 47 YDS
Jets- Tyrod TaylorPassing7/11, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- Justin FieldsRushing5 CAR, 49 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving4 REC, 50 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:28Jeremy Ruckert 5 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Nick Folk Kick)30–10
- Q414:57Elijah Moore 4 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)30–3
- Q39:01Matt Prater 33 Yd Field Goal23–3
- Q24:21Nick Folk 51 Yd Field Goal20–3
- Q28:50James Cook 44 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)20–0
- Q214:02Matt Prater 52 Yd Field Goal13–0
- Q15:01Matt Prater 28 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q17:29James Cook 1 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:29James Cook 1 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)BUF 7 – 0 NYJ · BUF 69% → 83% +14BUF 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q15:01Matt Prater 28 Yd Field GoalBUF 10 – 0 NYJ · BUF 83% → 88% +5BUF 83% → 88%+5 pts
- Q214:02Matt Prater 52 Yd Field GoalBUF 13 – 0 NYJ · BUF 88% → 92% +4BUF 88% → 92%+4 pts
- Q28:50James Cook 44 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)BUF 20 – 0 NYJ · BUF 93% → 98% +5BUF 93% → 98%+5 pts
- Q24:21Nick Folk 51 Yd Field GoalBUF 20 – 3 NYJ · NYJ 2% → 3% +2NYJ 2% → 3%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -5.5
- ML BUF -270 / NYJ +220
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -7
- BUF 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- BUF: Elo 72.6%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- BUF -236
- NYJ +236 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 26.0 – 20.5 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1651 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +18 | BUF: Josh Allen · NYJ: Justin Fields, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +170 Elo | BUF 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 71.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 70.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3230.9 | Points scored | 19.924th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.6 | Points allowed | 23.820th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+9.2 | Margin | −3.924th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.96 | Yards per play | 5.2220th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.52 | Yards allowed per play | 4.993rd of 32 |
| 4th of 328–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 3–520th of 32 |
| 28th of 321481 | Opponent Elo | 149717th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321651 | Elo rating | 142723rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  BUF |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–7 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–4 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–5 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–1 NYJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.