Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing14/19, 209 YDS, 2 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing18 CAR, 169 YDS, 2 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving7 REC, 143 YDS, 1 TD
Bills- Josh AllenPassing33/46, 394 YDS, 2 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing13 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
- Keon ColemanReceiving8 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Matt Prater 32 Yd Field Goal40–41
- Q41:58Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)40–38
- Q43:56Keon Coleman 10 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)40–32
- Q411:42Derrick Henry 46 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop PAT Failed)40–25
- Q412:51Josh Allen 2 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)34–25
- Q31:09DeAndre Hopkins 29 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)34–19
- Q37:47James Cook 2 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–19
- Q312:48Zay Flowers 23 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)27–13
- Q20:00Matt Prater 43 Yd Field Goal20–13
- Q20:31Tyler Loop 49 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q22:50Matt Prater 25 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q29:47Lamar Jackson 10 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)17–7
- Q213:35Derrick Henry 30 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)10–7
- Q13:38Tyler Loop 52 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q111:19Dalton Kincaid 15 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:19Dalton Kincaid 15 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)BAL 0 – 7 BUF · BUF 48% → 66% +18BUF 48% → 66%+18 pts
- Q213:35Derrick Henry 30 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 10 – 7 BUF · BAL 40% → 60% +20BAL 40% → 60%+20 pts
- Q29:47Lamar Jackson 10 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 17 – 7 BUF · BAL 61% → 79% +19BAL 61% → 79%+19 pts
- Q41:58Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)BAL 40 – 38 BUF · BUF <1% → 24% +24BUF <1% → 24%+24 pts
- Q40:00Matt Prater 32 Yd Field GoalBAL 40 – 41 BUF · BUF 0% → 100% +100BUF 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -1.5
- ML BAL -120 / BUF +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -1
- BAL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 45.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -107
- BUF +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 26.5 – 25.0 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1646 | 1643 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | — | BAL: Lamar Jackson · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +29 Elo | BUF 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 53.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3230.5 | Points scored | 30.92nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3221.2 | Points allowed | 21.611th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+9.2 | Margin | +9.23rd of 32 |
| 1st of 326.85 | Yards per play | 5.966th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.19 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5221st of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–3 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 32 |
| 4th of 321517 | Opponent Elo | 148128th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321646 | Elo rating | 16433rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  BAL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–7 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–7 | 8–4 |
| Underdog | — | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–4 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 1–1 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.