Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing22/34, 146 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing12 CAR, 62 YDS
- Tyreek HillReceiving5 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD
Bills- Josh AllenPassing22/28, 213 YDS, 3 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing19 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- Dalton KincaidReceiving5 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:22Matt Prater 48 Yd Field Goal21–31
- Q47:17Khalil Shakir 15 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)21–28
- Q412:18Tyreek Hill 5 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)21–21
- Q310:23James Cook 2 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)14–21
- Q20:08Jaylen Waddle 3 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)14–14
- Q211:54Jackson Hawes 5 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)7–14
- Q14:04Dalton Kincaid 20 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)7–7
- Q18:31Ollie Gordon II 2 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:04Dalton Kincaid 20 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)MIA 7 – 7 BUF · BUF 65% → 81% +16BUF 65% → 81%+16 pts
- Q20:08Jaylen Waddle 3 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)MIA 14 – 14 BUF · MIA 10% → 25% +15MIA 10% → 25%+15 pts
- Q310:23James Cook 2 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)MIA 14 – 21 BUF · BUF 74% → 90% +17BUF 74% → 90%+17 pts
- Q412:18Tyreek Hill 5 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)MIA 21 – 21 BUF · MIA 8% → 33% +25MIA 8% → 33%+25 pts
- Q47:17Khalil Shakir 15 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)MIA 21 – 28 BUF · BUF 63% → 95% +31BUF 63% → 95%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -11.5
- ML MIA +475 / BUF -750
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -10.5
- BUF 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- BUF: Elo 82.2%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- BUF -504
- MIA +504 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 19.5 – 31.0 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1670 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +23 | — | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +266 Elo | BUF 82.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 80.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 83.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.3 | Points scored | 30.92nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3221.4 | Points allowed | 21.611th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−1.1 | Margin | +9.23rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.11 | Yards per play | 5.966th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.28 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5221st of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–6 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 32 |
| 25th of 321485 | Opponent Elo | 148427th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321417 | Elo rating | 16702nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  MIA |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 8–4 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 0–4 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.