New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing10/21, 86 YDS
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing25 CAR, 71 YDS
- Mack HollinsReceiving2 REC, 51 YDS
Broncos- Jarrett StidhamPassing17/31, 133 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RJ HarveyRushing13 CAR, 37 YDS
- Marvin Mims Jr.Receiving4 REC, 62 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q35:29Andy Borregales 23 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q22:10Drake Maye 6 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)7–7
- Q110:19Courtland Sutton 6 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Wil Lutz Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:19Courtland Sutton 6 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Wil Lutz Kick)NE 0 – 7 DEN · DEN 36% → 54% +18DEN 36% → 54%+18 pts
- Q22:10Drake Maye 6 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 7 – 7 DEN · NE 37% → 61% +24NE 37% → 61%+24 pts
- Q35:29Andy Borregales 23 Yd Field GoalNE 10 – 7 DEN · NE 58% → 70% +12NE 58% → 70%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- NE -3.5
- ML NE -205 / DEN +170
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -3
- NE 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- NE: Elo 61.1%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- NE -180
- DEN +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 23.5 – 20.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1658 | 1681 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +20 | −117 | NE: Drake Maye · DEN: Jarrett Stidham, usually Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +79 Elo | NE 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 59.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 64.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3228.8 | Points scored | 23.614th of 32 |
| 4th of 3218.8 | Points allowed | 18.33rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+10.0 | Margin | +5.37th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.18 | Yards per play | 5.3315th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.16 | Yards allowed per play | 4.461st of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 1st of 328–0 | Road vs home | 8–11st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321430 | Opponent Elo | 144231st of 32 |
| 5th of 321658 | Elo rating | 16812nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–5 | 8–10 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–3 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–7 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NE 1–0 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.