Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Trey LancePassing20/44, 136 YDS, 1 INT
- Trey LanceRushing9 CAR, 69 YDS
- Keenan AllenReceiving7 REC, 36 YDS
Broncos- Bo NixPassing14/23, 141 YDS
- Bo NixRushing8 CAR, 49 YDS
- Evan EngramReceiving3 REC, 45 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:23Wil Lutz 23 Yd Field Goal3–19
- Q411:45Wil Lutz 41 Yd Field Goal3–16
- Q310:07Wil Lutz 26 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q20:03Cameron Dicker 30 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q13:39Ja'Quan McMillian 45 Yd Interception Return (Wil Lutz Kick)0–10
- Q15:06Wil Lutz 24 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:06Wil Lutz 24 Yd Field GoalLAC 0 – 3 DEN · DEN 88% → 92% +4DEN 88% → 92%+4 pts
- Q13:39Ja'Quan McMillian 45 Yd Interception Return (Wil Lutz Kick)LAC 0 – 10 DEN · DEN 92% → 97% +5DEN 92% → 97%+5 pts
- Q20:03Cameron Dicker 30 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 10 DEN · LAC 4% → 6% +3LAC 4% → 6%+3 pts
- Q310:07Wil Lutz 26 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 13 DEN · DEN 94% → 97% +3DEN 94% → 97%+3 pts
- Q411:45Wil Lutz 41 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 16 DEN · DEN 98% → >99% +2DEN 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
- Market
- DEN -15.5
- ML LAC +950 / DEN -1650
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -10.5
- DEN 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 81.8%, market 90.8%
- Fair odds
- DEN -933
- LAC +933 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 11.0 – 26.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1654 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −143 | +5 | LAC: Trey Lance, usually Justin Herbert · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +261 Elo | DEN 81.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 82.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 81.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 90.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3222.8 | Points scored | 23.913th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.1 | Points allowed | 19.34th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+2.8 | Margin | +4.67th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.32 | Yards per play | 5.4015th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.08 | Yards allowed per play | 4.551st of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 5th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 7–11st of 32 |
| 30th of 321466 | Opponent Elo | 144231st of 32 |
| 12th of 321576 | Elo rating | 16543rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–7 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–2 DEN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.