Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing19/29, 210 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Omarion HamptonRushing15 CAR, 61 YDS
- Oronde GadsdenReceiving4 REC, 61 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing16/28, 189 YDS, 1 INT
- Isiah PachecoRushing11 CAR, 21 YDS
- Travis KelceReceiving7 REC, 70 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q30:51Cameron Dicker 49 Yd Field Goal16–13
- Q38:55Cameron Dicker 23 Yd Field Goal13–13
- Q20:05KeAndre Lambert-Smith 16 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–13
- Q20:38Harrison Butker 47 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q28:04Harrison Butker 27 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q12:30Cameron Dicker 49 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q18:52Patrick Mahomes 12 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:52Patrick Mahomes 12 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)LAC 0 – 7 KC · KC 68% → 82% +15KC 68% → 82%+15 pts
- Q28:04Harrison Butker 27 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 10 KC · KC 76% → 83% +7KC 76% → 83%+7 pts
- Q20:05KeAndre Lambert-Smith 16 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 10 – 13 KC · LAC 11% → 27% +16LAC 11% → 27%+16 pts
- Q38:55Cameron Dicker 23 Yd Field GoalLAC 13 – 13 KC · LAC 27% → 38% +11LAC 27% → 38%+11 pts
- Q30:51Cameron Dicker 49 Yd Field GoalLAC 16 – 13 KC · LAC 40% → 55% +15LAC 40% → 55%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- KC -5.5
- ML LAC +210 / KC -258
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -3.5
- KC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- KC: Elo 61.5%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -218
- LAC +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 18.0 – 23.5 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +4 | LAC: Justin Herbert · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +81 Elo | KC 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 63.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 68.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3223.0 | Points scored | 24.211th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 19.47th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+2.2 | Margin | +4.810th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.26 | Yards per play | 5.589th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.02 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4219th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 9th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
| 30th of 321453 | Opponent Elo | 151810th of 32 |
| 13th of 321542 | Elo rating | 15889th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–6 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 4–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–4 KC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.