Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing19/31, 181 YDS, 2 TD
- Jonathan TaylorRushing16 CAR, 58 YDS
- Ashton DulinReceiving1 REC, 48 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing29/46, 352 YDS, 1 INT
- Kareem HuntRushing30 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- Rashee RiceReceiving8 REC, 141 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT1:57Harrison Butker 27 Yd Field Goal20–23
- Q40:00Harrison Butker 25 Yd Field Goal20–20
- Q48:37Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Rush (Patrick Mahomes Pass to Rashee Rice for Two-Point Conversion)20–17
- Q31:26Michael Badgley 23 Yd Field Goal20–9
- Q39:12Michael Badgley 32 Yd Field Goal17–9
- Q20:07Harrison Butker 22 Yd Field Goal14–9
- Q22:19Harrison Butker 48 Yd Field Goal14–6
- Q210:31Drew Ogletree 4 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)14–3
- Q214:51Harrison Butker 28 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q18:11Michael Pittman Jr. 6 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:11Michael Pittman Jr. 6 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)IND 7 – 0 KC · IND 34% → 52% +18IND 34% → 52%+18 pts
- Q210:31Drew Ogletree 4 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)IND 14 – 3 KC · IND 48% → 68% +21IND 48% → 68%+21 pts
- Q48:37Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Rush (Patrick Mahomes Pass to Rashee Rice for Two-Point Conversion)IND 20 – 17 KC · KC 5% → 37% +32KC 5% → 37%+32 pts
- Q40:00Harrison Butker 25 Yd Field GoalIND 20 – 20 KC · KC 0% → 57% +57KC 0% → 57%+57 pts
- OT1:57Harrison Butker 27 Yd Field GoalIND 20 – 23 KC · KC 53% → 87% +34KC 53% → 87%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- KC -4.5
- ML IND +195 / KC -230
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -4
- KC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- KC: Elo 63.8%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -203
- IND +203 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 22.5 – 27.0 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1633 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +13 | +5 | IND: Daniel Jones · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +98 Elo | KC 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 63.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 67.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3232.1 | Points scored | 25.49th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.6 | Points allowed | 18.14th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+11.5 | Margin | +7.36th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.41 | Yards per play | 5.699th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4220th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 32 |
| 31st of 321440 | Opponent Elo | 15298th of 32 |
| 11th of 321563 | Elo rating | 16335th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.