Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing31/50, 342 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing14 CAR, 45 YDS
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving9 REC, 115 YDS
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing25/35, 203 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WarrenRushing16 CAR, 31 YDS, 2 TD
- Calvin Austin IIIReceiving5 REC, 56 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:09Michael Badgley 53 Yd Field Goal20–27
- Q44:30Josh Downs 4 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)17–27
- Q46:51Chris Boswell 46 Yd Field Goal10–27
- Q410:45Michael Badgley 52 Yd Field Goal10–24
- Q414:16Jaylen Warren 2 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)7–24
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 25 Yd Field Goal7–17
- Q24:22Pat Freiermuth 12 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)7–14
- Q26:09Jaylen Warren 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)7–7
- Q18:05Daniel Jones 1 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:05Daniel Jones 1 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley Kick)IND 7 – 0 PIT · IND 60% → 76% +16IND 60% → 76%+16 pts
- Q26:09Jaylen Warren 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)IND 7 – 7 PIT · PIT 22% → 42% +20PIT 22% → 42%+20 pts
- Q24:22Pat Freiermuth 12 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)IND 7 – 14 PIT · PIT 42% → 65% +23PIT 42% → 65%+23 pts
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 25 Yd Field GoalIND 7 – 17 PIT · PIT 67% → 76% +9PIT 67% → 76%+9 pts
- Q414:16Jaylen Warren 2 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)IND 7 – 24 PIT · PIT 88% → 98% +10PIT 88% → 98%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML IND -170 / PIT +145
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2.5
- IND 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- IND: Elo 58.8%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- IND -153
- PIT +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 27.5 – 24.0 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +15 | +17 | IND: Daniel Jones, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. · PIT: Aaron Rodgers, usually Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +61 Elo | IND 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 57.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 60.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3233.8 | Points scored | 25.012th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.3 | Points allowed | 25.022nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+14.5 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.54 | Yards per play | 5.4216th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.40 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6424th of 32 |
| 5th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–225th of 32 |
| 30th of 321430 | Opponent Elo | 149321st of 32 |
| 10th of 321582 | Elo rating | 148218th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–0 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.