Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing24/33, 262 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing17 CAR, 76 YDS
- Adonai MitchellReceiving3 REC, 96 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing29/41, 375 YDS, 3 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing13 CAR, 77 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving13 REC, 170 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:33Tutu Atwell 88 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)20–27
- Q43:20Puka Nacua 9 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)20–20
- Q48:58Spencer Shrader 38 Yd Field Goal20–13
- Q411:34Michael Pittman Jr. 2 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)17–13
- Q20:07Davante Adams 10 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)10–13
- Q25:21Joshua Karty 37 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q212:17Tyler Warren 2 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)10–3
- Q14:55Spencer Shrader 52 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q17:32Joshua Karty 42 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:17Tyler Warren 2 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)IND 10 – 3 LAR · IND 39% → 60% +21IND 39% → 60%+21 pts
- Q20:07Davante Adams 10 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)IND 10 – 13 LAR · LAR 45% → 69% +24LAR 45% → 69%+24 pts
- Q411:34Michael Pittman Jr. 2 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)IND 17 – 13 LAR · IND 28% → 66% +38IND 28% → 66%+38 pts
- Q43:20Puka Nacua 9 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)IND 20 – 20 LAR · LAR 4% → 53% +49LAR 4% → 53%+49 pts
- Q41:33Tutu Atwell 88 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)IND 20 – 27 LAR · LAR 52% → >99% +48LAR 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -3.5
- ML IND +160 / LAR -190
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -4
- LAR 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- LAR: Elo 64.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAR -171
- IND +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 23.0 – 26.5 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −3 | +9 | IND: Daniel Jones, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +106 Elo | LAR 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 63.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 63.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3234.3 | Points scored | 24.312th of 32 |
| 8th of 3218.7 | Points allowed | 20.312th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+15.7 | Margin | +4.012th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.61 | Yards per play | 5.994th of 32 |
| 14th of 324.95 | Yards allowed per play | 4.383rd of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 31st of 321413 | Opponent Elo | 150915th of 32 |
| 15th of 321522 | Elo rating | 15807th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  IND |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–8 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 0–1 LAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.