Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing19/33, 196 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing20 CAR, 94 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving11 REC, 112 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing21/32, 226 YDS, 3 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing18 CAR, 46 YDS
- A.J. BrownReceiving6 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Blocked Kick Recovered by Jordan Davis (PHI) Jordan Davis 61 Yd Touchown Return26–33
- Q41:48DeVonta Smith 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–27
- Q32:16A.J. Brown 9 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)26–21
- Q311:38Dallas Goedert 33 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)26–14
- Q314:06Kyren Williams 10 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)26–7
- Q20:10Joshua Karty 46 Yd Field Goal19–7
- Q23:43Joshua Karty 33 Yd Field Goal16–7
- Q29:15Joshua Karty 28 Yd Field Goal13–7
- Q11:20Davante Adams 44 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)10–7
- Q14:00Joshua Karty 51 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q18:07Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:07Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)LAR 0 – 7 PHI · PHI 64% → 80% +16PHI 64% → 80%+16 pts
- Q11:20Davante Adams 44 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 10 – 7 PHI · LAR 27% → 45% +18LAR 27% → 45%+18 pts
- Q314:06Kyren Williams 10 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 26 – 7 PHI · LAR 79% → 93% +13LAR 79% → 93%+13 pts
- Q32:16A.J. Brown 9 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)LAR 26 – 21 PHI · PHI 11% → 35% +24PHI 11% → 35%+24 pts
- Q41:48DeVonta Smith 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)LAR 26 – 27 PHI · PHI 4% → 67% +63PHI 4% → 67%+63 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -3.5
- ML LAR +170 / PHI -200
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -6.5
- PHI 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 72.1%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -185
- LAR +185 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 21.0 – 24.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1723 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | +9 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +165 Elo | PHI 72.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 71.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 64.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3221.6 | Points scored | 27.27th of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.7 | Points allowed | 17.82nd of 32 |
| 17th of 32−1.1 | Margin | +9.42nd of 32 |
| 16th of 325.42 | Yards per play | 5.6011th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.68 | Yards allowed per play | 4.741st of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 10th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 32 |
| 9th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 148328th of 32 |
| 6th of 321594 | Elo rating | 17231st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  LAR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–7 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 0–3 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.