Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing26/44, 324 YDS, 2 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing19 CAR, 106 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving6 REC, 97 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing15/20, 128 YDS
- Saquon BarkleyRushing26 CAR, 205 YDS, 2 TD
- Dallas GoedertReceiving4 REC, 56 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:48Colby Parkinson 4 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)22–28
- Q44:36Saquon Barkley 78 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott PAT Failed)15–28
- Q46:18Jake Elliott 37 Yd Field Goal15–22
- Q413:23Jake Elliott 23 Yd Field Goal15–19
- Q30:26Jalen Hurts Sacked by Neville Gallimore For 8 Yd Loss for Safety15–16
- Q32:19Jake Elliott 44 Yd Field Goal13–16
- Q37:37Joshua Karty 34 Yd Field Goal13–13
- Q212:47Joshua Karty 30 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q11:07Saquon Barkley 62 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)7–13
- Q16:32Tyler Higbee 4 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)7–6
- Q111:55Jalen Hurts 44 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott PAT Failed)0–6
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:55Jalen Hurts 44 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott PAT Failed)LAR 0 – 6 PHI · PHI 75% → 86% +11PHI 75% → 86%+11 pts
- Q16:32Tyler Higbee 4 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 7 – 6 PHI · LAR 15% → 28% +14LAR 15% → 28%+14 pts
- Q11:07Saquon Barkley 62 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)LAR 7 – 13 PHI · PHI 71% → 85% +15PHI 71% → 85%+15 pts
- Q32:19Jake Elliott 44 Yd Field GoalLAR 13 – 16 PHI · PHI 65% → 77% +12PHI 65% → 77%+12 pts
- Q413:23Jake Elliott 23 Yd Field GoalLAR 15 – 19 PHI · PHI 68% → 81% +13PHI 68% → 81%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -7.5
- ML LAR +300 / PHI -400
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -6
- PHI 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 70.9%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -313
- LAR +313 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 18.0 – 25.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1732 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +11 | +11 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +154 Elo | PHI 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 69.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 75.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3221.6 | Points scored | 27.27th of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.7 | Points allowed | 17.82nd of 32 |
| 17th of 32−1.1 | Margin | +9.42nd of 32 |
| 16th of 325.42 | Yards per play | 5.6011th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.68 | Yards allowed per play | 4.741st of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 10th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–7 | 11–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 8–5 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.