New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Drew LockPassing22/29, 138 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing14 CAR, 59 YDS
- Malik NabersReceiving5 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
Eagles- Tanner McKeePassing27/41, 269 YDS, 2 TD
- Will ShipleyRushing10 CAR, 32 YDS
- Jahan DotsonReceiving7 REC, 94 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:47Jake Elliott 32 Yd Field Goal13–20
- Q47:21Graham Gano 53 Yd Field Goal13–17
- Q410:32Malik Nabers 45 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Graham Gano Kick)10–17
- Q414:55E.J. Jenkins 7 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Jake Elliott Kick)3–17
- Q37:34Graham Gano 25 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q21:44Jake Elliott 24 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q16:51Ainias Smith 15 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Jake Elliott Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:51Ainias Smith 15 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Jake Elliott Kick)NYG 0 – 7 PHI · PHI 62% → 78% +16PHI 62% → 78%+16 pts
- Q37:34Graham Gano 25 Yd Field GoalNYG 3 – 10 PHI · NYG 11% → 18% +7NYG 11% → 18%+7 pts
- Q414:55E.J. Jenkins 7 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Jake Elliott Kick)NYG 3 – 17 PHI · PHI 85% → 97% +12PHI 85% → 97%+12 pts
- Q410:32Malik Nabers 45 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Graham Gano Kick)NYG 10 – 17 PHI · NYG 1% → 12% +10NYG 1% → 12%+10 pts
- Q47:21Graham Gano 53 Yd Field GoalNYG 13 – 17 PHI · NYG 8% → 20% +12NYG 8% → 20%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -2.5
- ML NYG +145 / PHI -170
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -12
- PHI 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +24.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 85.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -170
- NYG +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 16.5 – 19.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 35.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1301 | 1705 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | −133 | NYG: Drew Lock, usually Daniel Jones · PHI: Tanner McKee, usually Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +301 Elo | PHI 85.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 84.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 84.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3216.3 | Points scored | 27.77th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3224.7 | Points allowed | 18.13rd of 32 |
| 28th of 32−8.4 | Margin | +9.63rd of 32 |
| 30th of 324.73 | Yards per play | 5.6812th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.69 | Yards allowed per play | 4.761st of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 6–14th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYG |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–9 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYG 1–2 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.