Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing23/33, 298 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing17 CAR, 66 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving6 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
Titans- Cam WardPassing19/33, 175 YDS, 1 TD
- Tony PollardRushing20 CAR, 92 YDS
- Calvin RidleyReceiving3 REC, 57 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:40Joey Slye 35 Yd Field Goal33–19
- Q46:45Blake Corum 1 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty PAT blocked)33–16
- Q49:40Davante Adams 16 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)27–16
- Q31:17Davis Allen 8 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)20–16
- Q33:32Joey Slye 57 Yd Field Goal13–16
- Q39:29Joshua Karty 21 Yd Field Goal13–13
- Q20:00Joey Slye 37 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q20:38Elic Ayomanor 9 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)10–10
- Q27:25Joshua Karty 21 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q211:21Joey Slye 55 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q18:39Puka Nacua 45 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:39Puka Nacua 45 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 7 – 0 TEN · LAR 68% → 83% +14LAR 68% → 83%+14 pts
- Q20:38Elic Ayomanor 9 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)LAR 10 – 10 TEN · TEN 16% → 36% +19TEN 16% → 36%+19 pts
- Q33:32Joey Slye 57 Yd Field GoalLAR 13 – 16 TEN · TEN 39% → 52% +13TEN 39% → 52%+13 pts
- Q31:17Davis Allen 8 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 20 – 16 TEN · LAR 46% → 77% +31LAR 46% → 77%+31 pts
- Q49:40Davante Adams 16 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 27 – 16 TEN · LAR 80% → 97% +18LAR 80% → 97%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -5.5
- ML LAR -240 / TEN +200
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -11
- LAR 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +15.1 pts
- LAR: Elo 83.0%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- LAR -225
- TEN +225 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 23.0 – 17.5 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1330 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | −48 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · TEN: Cam Ward, usually Will Levis (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +276 Elo | LAR 83.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 79.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 69.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3221.6 | Points scored | 18.327th of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.7 | Points allowed | 27.130th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−1.1 | Margin | −8.830th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.42 | Yards per play | 5.0127th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.68 | Yards allowed per play | 5.258th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 1–731st of 32 |
| 12th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 15119th of 32 |
| 8th of 321583 | Elo rating | 133032nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  LAR |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–7 | 2–14 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 2–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.