Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Cam WardPassing12/28, 112 YDS
- Tony PollardRushing18 CAR, 60 YDS
- Tony PollardReceiving1 REC, 29 YDS
Broncos- Bo NixPassing25/40, 176 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RJ HarveyRushing6 CAR, 70 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving6 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q47:37J.K. Dobbins 19 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)12–20
- Q34:17Wil Lutz 33 Yd Field Goal12–13
- Q311:56Joey Slye 35 Yd Field Goal12–10
- Q20:02Joey Slye 42 Yd Field Goal9–10
- Q20:16Courtland Sutton 22 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)6–10
- Q22:16Joey Slye 33 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q18:35Wil Lutz 39 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q111:58Joey Slye 50 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:16Joey Slye 33 Yd Field GoalTEN 6 – 3 DEN · TEN 27% → 36% +9TEN 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q20:16Courtland Sutton 22 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)TEN 6 – 10 DEN · DEN 63% → 83% +20DEN 63% → 83%+20 pts
- Q311:56Joey Slye 35 Yd Field GoalTEN 12 – 10 DEN · TEN 26% → 36% +10TEN 26% → 36%+10 pts
- Q34:17Wil Lutz 33 Yd Field GoalTEN 12 – 13 DEN · DEN 60% → 72% +12DEN 60% → 72%+12 pts
- Q47:37J.K. Dobbins 19 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)TEN 12 – 20 DEN · DEN 68% → 96% +27DEN 68% → 96%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -9.5
- ML TEN +360 / DEN -500
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -12
- DEN 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 85.3%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -395
- TEN +395 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 17.0 – 26.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1337 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −46 | 0 | TEN: Cam Ward, usually Will Levis · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +305 Elo | DEN 85.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 73.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 82.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 79.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3218.3 | Points scored | 25.010th of 32 |
| 30th of 3227.1 | Points allowed | 18.33rd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−8.8 | Margin | +6.77th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.01 | Yards per play | 5.2319th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.25 | Yards allowed per play | 4.932nd of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 6–27th of 32 |
| 8th of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 149322nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321337 | Elo rating | 156110th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  TEN |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–14 | 11–5 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–6 | 8–0 |
| Underdog | 2–8 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.