Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing19/27, 188 YDS, 1 INT
- Nick ChubbRushing13 CAR, 60 YDS
- Jayden HigginsReceiving2 REC, 32 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing21/29, 245 YDS, 1 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing18 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving10 REC, 130 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q312:28Davis Allen 13 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)9–14
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 53 Yd Field Goal9–7
- Q20:53Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty Kick)6–7
- Q24:47Ka'imi Fairbairn 45 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q11:15Ka'imi Fairbairn 51 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:15Ka'imi Fairbairn 51 Yd Field GoalHOU 3 – 0 LAR · HOU 41% → 50% +9HOU 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q24:47Ka'imi Fairbairn 45 Yd Field GoalHOU 6 – 0 LAR · HOU 52% → 62% +10HOU 52% → 62%+10 pts
- Q20:53Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty Kick)HOU 6 – 7 LAR · LAR 37% → 61% +24LAR 37% → 61%+24 pts
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 53 Yd Field GoalHOU 9 – 7 LAR · HOU 39% → 50% +11HOU 39% → 50%+11 pts
- Q312:28Davis Allen 13 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)HOU 9 – 14 LAR · LAR 49% → 74% +24LAR 49% → 74%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -3.5
- ML HOU +140 / LAR -165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -3
- LAR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- LAR: Elo 61.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAR -150
- HOU +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 20.0 – 23.5 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +11 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +80 Elo | LAR 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 62.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 60.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3221.9 | Points scored | 21.620th of 32 |
| 14th of 3221.9 | Points allowed | 22.717th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −1.117th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.14 | Yards per play | 5.4216th of 32 |
| 4th of 325.10 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6826th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 5–416th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 150613th of 32 |
| 14th of 321529 | Elo rating | 156710th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  HOU |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–8 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–11 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.