Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing21/32, 257 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Patrick MahomesRushing4 CAR, 25 YDS
- Xavier WorthyReceiving8 REC, 157 YDS, 2 TD
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing17/22, 221 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Jalen HurtsRushing11 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- DeVonta SmithReceiving4 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:48Xavier Worthy 50 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Patrick Mahomes Pass to DeAndre Hopkins for Two-Point Conversion)22–40
- Q42:54DeAndre Hopkins 7 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Patrick Mahomes Pass to Justin Watson for Two-Point Conversion)14–40
- Q48:01Jake Elliott 50 Yd Field Goal6–40
- Q49:51Jake Elliott 48 Yd Field Goal6–37
- Q30:34Xavier Worthy 24 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–34
- Q32:40DeVonta Smith 46 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)0–34
- Q35:18Jake Elliott 29 Yd Field Goal0–27
- Q21:35A.J. Brown 12 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)0–24
- Q27:03Cooper DeJean 38 Yd Interception Return (Jake Elliott Kick)0–17
- Q28:38Jake Elliott 48 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q16:15Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:15Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)KC 0 – 7 PHI · PHI 49% → 67% +18PHI 49% → 67%+18 pts
- Q28:38Jake Elliott 48 Yd Field GoalKC 0 – 10 PHI · PHI 70% → 77% +8PHI 70% → 77%+8 pts
- Q27:03Cooper DeJean 38 Yd Interception Return (Jake Elliott Kick)KC 0 – 17 PHI · PHI 78% → 91% +13PHI 78% → 91%+13 pts
- Q21:35A.J. Brown 12 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)KC 0 – 24 PHI · PHI 93% → 98% +5PHI 93% → 98%+5 pts
- Q35:18Jake Elliott 29 Yd Field GoalKC 0 – 27 PHI · PHI >99% → >99% +0PHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- KC -1.5
- ML KC -119 / PHI -101
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- KC 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- KC: Elo 45.2%, market 52.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -106
- PHI +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 25.0 – 23.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1738 | 1770 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +10 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +33 Elo | PHI 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3222.6 | Points scored | 27.27th of 32 |
| 4th of 3219.2 | Points allowed | 17.82nd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+3.5 | Margin | +9.42nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.11 | Yards per play | 5.6011th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.31 | Yards allowed per play | 4.741st of 32 |
| 4th of 328–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–9 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.