Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing15/22, 101 YDS
- Saquon BarkleyRushing22 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- DeVonta SmithReceiving4 REC, 53 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing16/29, 187 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Patrick MahomesRushing7 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis KelceReceiving4 REC, 61 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:00Tyquan Thornton 49 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)20–17
- Q47:48Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)20–10
- Q311:28Jake Elliott 51 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q20:00Jake Elliott 58 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q22:44Patrick Mahomes 13 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)7–10
- Q211:42Harrison Butker 56 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q10:46Saquon Barkley 13 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:46Saquon Barkley 13 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 0 KC · PHI 51% → 70% +19PHI 51% → 70%+19 pts
- Q22:44Patrick Mahomes 13 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)PHI 7 – 10 KC · KC 36% → 60% +23KC 36% → 60%+23 pts
- Q311:28Jake Elliott 51 Yd Field GoalPHI 13 – 10 KC · PHI 51% → 62% +11PHI 51% → 62%+11 pts
- Q47:48Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 20 – 10 KC · PHI 70% → 96% +26PHI 70% → 96%+26 pts
- Q43:00Tyquan Thornton 49 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)PHI 20 – 17 KC · KC <1% → 20% +20KC <1% → 20%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -1.5
- ML PHI -110 / KC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -3
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -103
- KC +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 24.0 – 22.5 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1710 | 1602 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +8 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +73 Elo | PHI 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 50.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3227.2 | Points scored | 22.615th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3217.8 | Points allowed | 19.24th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+9.4 | Margin | +3.511th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.60 | Yards per play | 5.1123rd of 32 |
| 1st of 324.74 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3112th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 32 |
| 4th of 326–2 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 32 |
| 29th of 321479 | Opponent Elo | 149816th of 32 |
| 1st of 321710 | Elo rating | 16026th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  PHI |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–6 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–6 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–0 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.