Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing24/39, 258 YDS, 1 TD
- Patrick MahomesRushing6 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- Hollywood BrownReceiving10 REC, 99 YDS
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing25/34, 318 YDS, 3 TD
- Omarion HamptonRushing15 CAR, 48 YDS
- Quentin JohnstonReceiving5 REC, 79 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:34Harrison Butker 27 Yd Field Goal21–27
- Q45:02Quentin Johnston 23 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)18–27
- Q412:04Travis Kelce 37 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)18–20
- Q30:32Keenan Allen 11 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)12–20
- Q38:05Patrick Mahomes 11 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker PAT Failed)12–13
- Q20:00Harrison Butker 59 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q20:45Cameron Dicker 36 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q24:50Harrison Butker 35 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q213:47Cameron Dicker 39 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q19:11Quentin Johnston 5 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:11Quentin Johnston 5 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)KC 0 – 7 LAC · LAC 39% → 57% +18LAC 39% → 57%+18 pts
- Q38:05Patrick Mahomes 11 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker PAT Failed)KC 12 – 13 LAC · KC 30% → 53% +23KC 30% → 53%+23 pts
- Q30:32Keenan Allen 11 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)KC 12 – 20 LAC · LAC 49% → 80% +31LAC 49% → 80%+31 pts
- Q412:04Travis Kelce 37 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)KC 18 – 20 LAC · KC 16% → 44% +28KC 16% → 44%+28 pts
- Q45:02Quentin Johnston 23 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)KC 18 – 27 LAC · LAC 64% → 97% +33LAC 64% → 97%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- KC -3.5
- ML KC -175 / LAC +150
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -4.5
- KC 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- KC: Elo 66.4%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- KC -162
- LAC +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 25.5 – 22.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1637 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | +8 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +118 Elo | KC 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 64.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 61.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3222.6 | Points scored | 23.611th of 32 |
| 4th of 3219.2 | Points allowed | 17.71st of 32 |
| 11th of 32+3.5 | Margin | +5.98th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.11 | Yards per play | 5.4215th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.31 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3213th of 32 |
| 4th of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 21st of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 148131st of 32 |
| 5th of 321637 | Elo rating | 151915th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  KC |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–10 | 13–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 11–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–0 LAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.