Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing22/30, 206 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- J.K. DobbinsRushing14 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- Troy FranklinReceiving8 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing23/34, 316 YDS, 1 TD
- Jonathan TaylorRushing25 CAR, 165 YDS
- Tyler WarrenReceiving4 REC, 79 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Spencer Shrader 45 Yd Field Goal28–29
- Q48:33Spencer Shrader 28 Yd Field Goal28–26
- Q35:42Spencer Shrader 36 Yd Field Goal28–23
- Q311:13J.K. Dobbins 5 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)28–20
- Q21:31Jonathan Taylor 7 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)21–20
- Q23:03Adam Trautman 2 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)21–13
- Q210:42Troy Franklin 3 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)14–13
- Q214:12Daniel Jones 1 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)7–13
- Q14:19Spencer Shrader 33 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q18:24Marvin Mims Jr. 23 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)7–3
- Q111:51Spencer Shrader 29 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:42Troy Franklin 3 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 14 – 13 IND · DEN 36% → 57% +21DEN 36% → 57%+21 pts
- Q23:03Adam Trautman 2 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 21 – 13 IND · DEN 57% → 78% +21DEN 57% → 78%+21 pts
- Q21:31Jonathan Taylor 7 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)DEN 21 – 20 IND · IND 22% → 43% +21IND 22% → 43%+21 pts
- Q311:13J.K. Dobbins 5 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 28 – 20 IND · DEN 57% → 80% +23DEN 57% → 80%+23 pts
- Q40:00Spencer Shrader 45 Yd Field GoalDEN 28 – 29 IND · IND 0% → 100% +100IND 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -1.5
- ML DEN -130 / IND +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2.5
- DEN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 58.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -120
- IND +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 22.5 – 21.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −8 | −27 | DEN: Bo Nix · IND: Daniel Jones, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +58 Elo | DEN 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 57.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 54.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.0 | Points scored | 22.217th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3218.3 | Points allowed | 25.124th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+6.7 | Margin | −2.921st of 32 |
| 19th of 325.23 | Yards per play | 5.4714th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.93 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5222nd of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
| 24th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 147331st of 32 |
| 9th of 321568 | Elo rating | 149318th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  DEN |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–5 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–0 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 1–0 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.