Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing18/25, 228 YDS, 1 TD
- Jonathan TaylorRushing17 CAR, 102 YDS, 3 TD
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving6 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
Titans- Cam WardPassing23/38, 219 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing16 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- Chig OkonkwoReceiving5 REC, 66 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:53Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)41–20
- Q48:40Elic Ayomanor 8 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)34–20
- Q31:27Jonathan Taylor 46 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)34–13
- Q35:09Tony Pollard 1 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)27–13
- Q311:08Michael Pittman Jr. 20 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)27–6
- Q20:00Spencer Shrader 36 Yd Field Goal20–6
- Q210:50Joey Slye 42 Yd Field Goal17–6
- Q11:07Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)17–3
- Q17:37Spencer Shrader 24 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q112:40Joey Slye 57 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q114:11Kenny Moore II 32 Yd Interception Return (Spencer Shrader Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q114:11Kenny Moore II 32 Yd Interception Return (Spencer Shrader Kick)IND 7 – 0 TEN · IND 69% → 83% +14IND 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q112:40Joey Slye 57 Yd Field GoalIND 7 – 3 TEN · TEN 17% → 23% +5TEN 17% → 23%+5 pts
- Q17:37Spencer Shrader 24 Yd Field GoalIND 10 – 3 TEN · IND 77% → 83% +6IND 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q11:07Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)IND 17 – 3 TEN · IND 83% → 93% +10IND 83% → 93%+10 pts
- Q311:08Michael Pittman Jr. 20 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)IND 27 – 6 TEN · IND 95% → >99% +4IND 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- IND -5.5
- ML IND -250 / TEN +210
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -7
- IND 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- IND: Elo 73.7%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- IND -225
- TEN +225 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 24.0 – 18.5 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1320 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −13 | −44 | IND: Daniel Jones, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. · TEN: Cam Ward, usually Will Levis (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +179 Elo | IND 73.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 71.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 69.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3222.2 | Points scored | 18.327th of 32 |
| 24th of 3225.1 | Points allowed | 27.130th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.9 | Margin | −8.830th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.47 | Yards per play | 5.0127th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.52 | Yards allowed per play | 5.258th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–6 | Road vs home | 1–731st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321468 | Opponent Elo | 150913th of 32 |
| 16th of 321503 | Elo rating | 132032nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  IND |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–8 | 2–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 2–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 4–0 TEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.