Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing23/34, 249 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- Jaylen WarrenRushing16 CAR, 127 YDS
- Pat FreiermuthReceiving5 REC, 111 YDS, 2 TD
Bengals- Joe FlaccoPassing31/47, 342 YDS, 3 TD
- Chase BrownRushing11 CAR, 108 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving16 REC, 161 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:07Evan McPherson 36 Yd Field Goal31–33
- Q42:21Pat Freiermuth 68 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)31–30
- Q46:58Evan McPherson 45 Yd Field Goal24–30
- Q411:03Darnell Washington 2 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)24–27
- Q414:57Noah Fant 5 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)17–27
- Q33:55Pat Freiermuth 19 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)17–20
- Q37:55Evan McPherson 23 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q20:00Evan McPherson 49 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q22:52Tee Higgins 29 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)10–14
- Q24:38Ja'Marr Chase 8 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)10–7
- Q210:26Chris Boswell 41 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q110:51Jonnu Smith 10 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:55Pat Freiermuth 19 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 17 – 20 CIN · PIT 19% → 47% +27PIT 19% → 47%+27 pts
- Q414:57Noah Fant 5 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)PIT 17 – 27 CIN · CIN 56% → 85% +29CIN 56% → 85%+29 pts
- Q411:03Darnell Washington 2 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 24 – 27 CIN · PIT 10% → 40% +30PIT 10% → 40%+30 pts
- Q42:21Pat Freiermuth 68 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 31 – 30 CIN · PIT 3% → 66% +62PIT 3% → 66%+62 pts
- Q40:07Evan McPherson 36 Yd Field GoalPIT 31 – 33 CIN · CIN 7% → >99% +92CIN 7% → >99%+92 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -5.5
- ML PIT -240 / CIN +200
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -4
- PIT 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 63.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -209
- CIN +209 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 25.0 – 19.5 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +14 | −60 | PIT: Aaron Rodgers, usually Russell Wilson · CIN: Joe Flacco, usually Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +98 Elo | PIT 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 63.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 67.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 17.229th of 32 |
| 16th of 3221.4 | Points allowed | 30.530th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+2.4 | Margin | −13.332nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.09 | Yards per play | 4.2930th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.17 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9129th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 32 |
| 26th of 321465 | Opponent Elo | 15474th of 32 |
| 15th of 321524 | Elo rating | 146422nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–1 CIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.