Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Jake BrowningPassing14/25, 125 YDS
- Chase BrownRushing10 CAR, 40 YDS
- Tee HigginsReceiving3 REC, 32 YDS
Broncos- Bo NixPassing29/42, 326 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- J.K. DobbinsRushing16 CAR, 101 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving5 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:58RJ Harvey 12 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)3–28
- Q20:08Courtland Sutton 20 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)3–21
- Q28:48Marvin Mims Jr. 16 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)3–14
- Q10:17Bo Nix 6 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)3–7
- Q19:08Evan McPherson 26 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:08Evan McPherson 26 Yd Field GoalCIN 3 – 0 DEN · CIN 24% → 31% +7CIN 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q10:17Bo Nix 6 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)CIN 3 – 7 DEN · DEN 66% → 82% +16DEN 66% → 82%+16 pts
- Q28:48Marvin Mims Jr. 16 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)CIN 3 – 14 DEN · DEN 82% → 93% +11DEN 82% → 93%+11 pts
- Q20:08Courtland Sutton 20 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)CIN 3 – 21 DEN · DEN 93% → 98% +5DEN 93% → 98%+5 pts
- Q44:58RJ Harvey 12 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)CIN 3 – 28 DEN · DEN >99% → >99% +0DEN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -7.5
- ML CIN +320 / DEN -425
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -6
- DEN 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 70.0%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -331
- CIN +331 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 18.5 – 26.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −80 | −2 | CIN: Jake Browning, usually Joe Burrow · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +148 Elo | DEN 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 69.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 76.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3219.3 | Points scored | 22.718th of 32 |
| 30th of 3230.3 | Points allowed | 21.313th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−11.0 | Margin | +1.316th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.99 | Yards per play | 5.2420th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.42 | Yards allowed per play | 4.8610th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 21st of 321478 | Opponent Elo | 145029th of 32 |
| 14th of 321511 | Elo rating | 154412th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CIN |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–6 | 11–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–4 | 8–0 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 1–0 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.