Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing24/42, 271 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing14 CAR, 71 YDS
- Parker WashingtonReceiving5 REC, 76 YDS
Bengals- Jake BrowningPassing21/32, 241 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Chase BrownRushing16 CAR, 47 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving14 REC, 165 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:18Jake Browning 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)27–31
- Q411:43Cam Little 25 Yd Field Goal27–24
- Q32:39Tee Higgins 42 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)24–24
- Q34:08Travis Etienne Jr. 11 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)24–17
- Q311:05Mitchell Tinsley 13 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)17–17
- Q21:35Cam Little 42 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q23:28Evan McPherson 31 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q210:54Bhayshul Tuten 8 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)14–7
- Q10:07Ja'Marr Chase 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)7–7
- Q110:51Dyami Brown 9 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:54Bhayshul Tuten 8 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)JAX 14 – 7 CIN · JAX 38% → 59% +21JAX 38% → 59%+21 pts
- Q311:05Mitchell Tinsley 13 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)JAX 17 – 17 CIN · CIN 34% → 60% +26CIN 34% → 60%+26 pts
- Q34:08Travis Etienne Jr. 11 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)JAX 24 – 17 CIN · JAX 42% → 72% +30JAX 42% → 72%+30 pts
- Q32:39Tee Higgins 42 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)JAX 24 – 24 CIN · CIN 27% → 58% +31CIN 27% → 58%+31 pts
- Q40:18Jake Browning 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)JAX 27 – 31 CIN · CIN <1% → >99% +100CIN <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -3.5
- ML JAX +170 / CIN -200
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -5
- CIN 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- CIN: Elo 67.5%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -182
- JAX +182 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 23.5 – 27.0 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +21 | +11 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +127 Elo | CIN 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 68.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 64.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3218.8 | Points scored | 27.86th of 32 |
| 27th of 3225.6 | Points allowed | 25.525th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−6.8 | Margin | +2.212th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.25 | Yards per play | 5.759th of 32 |
| 31st of 325.89 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4417th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–7 | Road vs home | 3–520th of 32 |
| 25th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 148926th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321441 | Elo rating | 154213th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  JAX |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–6 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 8–4 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
JAX 0–1 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.