Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing14/23, 113 YDS, 1 TD
- Chase BrownRushing21 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- Tee HigginsReceiving3 REC, 33 YDS
Browns- Joe FlaccoPassing31/45, 290 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Dylan SampsonRushing12 CAR, 29 YDS
- Jerry JeudyReceiving5 REC, 66 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q32:48Evan McPherson 35 Yd Field Goal17–16
- Q37:20Cedric Tillman 5 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Andre Szmyt PAT Failed)14–16
- Q20:23Andre Szmyt 45 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q24:18Noah Fant 1 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)14–7
- Q212:42Raheim Sanders 1 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–7
- Q17:32Chase Brown 5 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:32Chase Brown 5 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 7 – 0 CLE · CIN 64% → 80% +16CIN 64% → 80%+16 pts
- Q212:42Raheim Sanders 1 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)CIN 7 – 7 CLE · CLE 20% → 37% +17CLE 20% → 37%+17 pts
- Q24:18Noah Fant 1 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 14 – 7 CLE · CIN 62% → 81% +19CIN 62% → 81%+19 pts
- Q37:20Cedric Tillman 5 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Andre Szmyt PAT Failed)CIN 14 – 16 CLE · CLE 26% → 49% +23CLE 26% → 49%+23 pts
- Q32:48Evan McPherson 35 Yd Field GoalCIN 17 – 16 CLE · CIN 49% → 63% +14CIN 49% → 63%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -5.5
- ML CIN -215 / CLE +180
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -3
- CIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 60.3%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -188
- CLE +188 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 26.5 – 21.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1385 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +12 | +53 | CIN: Joe Burrow · CLE: Joe Flacco, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +73 Elo | CIN 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 60.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 65.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.8 | Points scored | 15.232nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.5 | Points allowed | 25.627th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+2.2 | Margin | −10.431st of 32 |
| 9th of 325.75 | Yards per play | 4.5731st of 32 |
| 17th of 325.44 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5924th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–3 | Road vs home | 2–626th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 15242nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321535 | Elo rating | 138528th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–6 | 4–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 8–4 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 4–9 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–1 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.