Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Jake BrowningPassing19/27, 140 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Samaje PerineRushing4 CAR, 21 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving5 REC, 50 YDS
Vikings- Carson WentzPassing14/20, 173 YDS, 2 TD
- Jordan MasonRushing16 CAR, 116 YDS, 2 TD
- Justin JeffersonReceiving5 REC, 75 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:12Drew Sample 4 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)10–48
- Q30:17T.J. Hockenson 5 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Will Reichard Kick)3–48
- Q36:00Jordan Mason 4 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)3–41
- Q20:00Will Reichard 62 Yd Field Goal3–34
- Q20:33Jordan Mason 5 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)3–31
- Q21:47Isaiah Rodgers 66 Yd Fumble Recovery (Will Reichard Kick)3–24
- Q24:42Evan McPherson 45 Yd Field Goal3–17
- Q29:20Will Reichard 35 Yd Field Goal0–17
- Q16:08Isaiah Rodgers 87 Yd Interception Return (Will Reichard Kick)0–14
- Q112:57Josh Oliver 12 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Will Reichard Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:57Josh Oliver 12 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Will Reichard Kick)CIN 0 – 7 MIN · MIN 60% → 76% +16MIN 60% → 76%+16 pts
- Q16:08Isaiah Rodgers 87 Yd Interception Return (Will Reichard Kick)CIN 0 – 14 MIN · MIN 76% → 88% +12MIN 76% → 88%+12 pts
- Q29:20Will Reichard 35 Yd Field GoalCIN 0 – 17 MIN · MIN 90% → 94% +3MIN 90% → 94%+3 pts
- Q24:42Evan McPherson 45 Yd Field GoalCIN 3 – 17 MIN · CIN 5% → 9% +3CIN 5% → 9%+3 pts
- Q21:47Isaiah Rodgers 66 Yd Fumble Recovery (Will Reichard Kick)CIN 3 – 24 MIN · MIN 92% → 98% +6MIN 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML CIN +145 / MIN -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.2%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -150
- CIN +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 19.5 – 23.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −79 | −84 | CIN: Jake Browning, usually Joe Burrow · MIN: Carson Wentz, usually Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +15 Elo | MIN 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.8 | Points scored | 25.49th of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.5 | Points allowed | 19.55th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+2.2 | Margin | +5.99th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.75 | Yards per play | 5.6012th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.44 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2910th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–3 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 32 |
| 26th of 321485 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 32 |
| 10th of 321554 | Elo rating | 153914th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CIN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–6 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–4 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.