Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing14/25, 153 YDS, 1 TD
- J.K. DobbinsRushing11 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- Courtland SuttonReceiving6 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing28/47, 300 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Omarion HamptonRushing19 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- Quentin JohnstonReceiving6 REC, 89 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Cameron Dicker 43 Yd Field Goal20–23
- Q42:37Keenan Allen 20 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)20–20
- Q412:21Wil Lutz 26 Yd Field Goal20–13
- Q35:35Cameron Dicker 24 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q312:02Wil Lutz 42 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q313:40J.K. Dobbins 19 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)14–10
- Q20:38Courtland Sutton 52 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)7–10
- Q21:53Omarion Hampton 3 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–10
- Q111:54Cameron Dicker 32 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:53Omarion Hampton 3 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)DEN 0 – 10 LAC · LAC 66% → 85% +18LAC 66% → 85%+18 pts
- Q20:38Courtland Sutton 52 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 7 – 10 LAC · DEN 15% → 34% +19DEN 15% → 34%+19 pts
- Q313:40J.K. Dobbins 19 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 14 – 10 LAC · DEN 33% → 58% +25DEN 33% → 58%+25 pts
- Q42:37Keenan Allen 20 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)DEN 20 – 20 LAC · LAC 2% → 52% +50LAC 2% → 52%+50 pts
- Q40:00Cameron Dicker 43 Yd Field GoalDEN 20 – 23 LAC · LAC 54% → 100% +46LAC 54% → 100%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML DEN +135 / LAC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 60.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- LAC -143
- DEN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 21.5 – 24.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −6 | +8 | DEN: Bo Nix · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +71 Elo | LAC 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 59.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 58.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.0 | Points scored | 23.611th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3218.3 | Points allowed | 17.71st of 32 |
| 7th of 32+6.7 | Margin | +5.98th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.23 | Yards per play | 5.4215th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.93 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3213th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
| 24th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 146931st of 32 |
| 12th of 321558 | Elo rating | 15799th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  DEN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–5 | 13–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–0 | 11–3 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–2 LAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.