Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing19/27, 242 YDS, 2 TD
- Justin HerbertRushing9 CAR, 31 YDS
- Quentin JohnstonReceiving3 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
Raiders- Geno SmithPassing24/43, 180 YDS, 3 INT
- Ashton JeantyRushing11 CAR, 43 YDS
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving6 REC, 68 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:15Daniel Carlson 37 Yd Field Goal20–9
- Q37:30Cameron Dicker 20 Yd Field Goal20–6
- Q21:51Quentin Johnston 60 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)17–6
- Q29:54Daniel Carlson 40 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q10:20Keenan Allen 10 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–3
- Q19:02Daniel Carlson 54 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q113:43Cameron Dicker 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:43Cameron Dicker 38 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 0 LV · LAC 62% → 69% +7LAC 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q19:02Daniel Carlson 54 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 3 LV · LV 31% → 38% +7LV 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q10:20Keenan Allen 10 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 10 – 3 LV · LAC 61% → 78% +17LAC 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q29:54Daniel Carlson 40 Yd Field GoalLAC 10 – 6 LV · LV 21% → 28% +7LV 21% → 28%+7 pts
- Q21:51Quentin Johnston 60 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 17 – 6 LV · LAC 72% → 88% +16LAC 72% → 88%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -3.5
- ML LAC -190 / LV +160
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2
- LAC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 57.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAC -167
- LV +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 25.0 – 21.5 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | +71 | LAC: Justin Herbert · LV: Geno Smith, usually Aidan O'Connell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +49 Elo | LAC 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 57.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 62.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3223.6 | Points scored | 18.229th of 32 |
| 1st of 3217.7 | Points allowed | 25.525th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+5.9 | Margin | −7.427th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.42 | Yards per play | 4.8428th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.32 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3815th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–3 | Road vs home | 2–626th of 32 |
| 31st of 321477 | Opponent Elo | 150812th of 32 |
| 11th of 321553 | Elo rating | 140527th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  LAC |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–5 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–3 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–1 LV in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.