Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe FlaccoPassing29/45, 219 YDS, 2 TD
- Chase BrownRushing9 CAR, 42 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving10 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
Packers- Jordan LovePassing19/26, 259 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing18 CAR, 93 YDS, 2 TD
- Matthew GoldenReceiving3 REC, 86 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:52Lucas Havrisik 39 Yd Field Goal18–27
- Q44:11Ja'Marr Chase 19 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Joe Flacco Pass to Chase Brown for Two-Point Conversion)18–24
- Q47:33Tucker Kraft 19 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Lucas Havrisik Kick)10–24
- Q410:43Evan McPherson 45 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q414:56Josh Jacobs 14 Yd Rush (Lucas Havrisik Kick)7–17
- Q34:46Tanner Hudson 2 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)7–10
- Q24:05Josh Jacobs 3 Yd Rush (Lucas Havrisik Kick)0–10
- Q214:15Lucas Havrisik 43 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:15Lucas Havrisik 43 Yd Field GoalCIN 0 – 3 GB · GB 82% → 87% +5GB 82% → 87%+5 pts
- Q24:05Josh Jacobs 3 Yd Rush (Lucas Havrisik Kick)CIN 0 – 10 GB · GB 86% → 95% +9GB 86% → 95%+9 pts
- Q34:46Tanner Hudson 2 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 7 – 10 GB · CIN 4% → 17% +13CIN 4% → 17%+13 pts
- Q414:56Josh Jacobs 14 Yd Rush (Lucas Havrisik Kick)CIN 7 – 17 GB · GB 82% → 96% +14GB 82% → 96%+14 pts
- Q47:33Tucker Kraft 19 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Lucas Havrisik Kick)CIN 10 – 24 GB · GB 95% → >99% +5GB 95% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- GB -13.5
- ML CIN +600 / GB -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -9.5
- GB 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- GB: Elo 79.4%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- GB -613
- CIN +613 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 15.5 – 29.0 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1602 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −66 | +5 | CIN: Joe Flacco, usually Joe Burrow · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +235 Elo | GB 79.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 81.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 80.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 86.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3217.0 | Points scored | 26.08th of 32 |
| 31st of 3231.2 | Points allowed | 21.012th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−14.2 | Margin | +5.09th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.28 | Yards per play | 5.5613th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.75 | Yards allowed per play | 4.462nd of 32 |
| 17th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 3rd of 321541 | Opponent Elo | 151810th of 32 |
| 19th of 321475 | Elo rating | 16026th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CIN |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–6 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–4 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.