Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing18/25, 183 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing16 CAR, 30 YDS
- Matthew GoldenReceiving4 REC, 52 YDS
Browns- Joe FlaccoPassing21/36, 142 YDS, 1 INT
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing18 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- David NjokuReceiving5 REC, 40 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Andre Szmyt 55 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q43:01Quinshon Judkins 1 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)10–10
- Q43:38Andre Szmyt 35 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q33:23John FitzPatrick 3 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)10–0
- Q214:53Brandon McManus 39 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:53Brandon McManus 39 Yd Field GoalGB 3 – 0 CLE · GB 74% → 81% +7GB 74% → 81%+7 pts
- Q33:23John FitzPatrick 3 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 10 – 0 CLE · GB 77% → 94% +17GB 77% → 94%+17 pts
- Q43:38Andre Szmyt 35 Yd Field GoalGB 10 – 3 CLE · CLE <1% → 2% +2CLE <1% → 2%+2 pts
- Q43:01Quinshon Judkins 1 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)GB 10 – 10 CLE · CLE 2% → 43% +42CLE 2% → 43%+42 pts
- Q40:00Andre Szmyt 55 Yd Field GoalGB 10 – 13 CLE · CLE 38% → 100% +62CLE 38% → 100%+62 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- GB -7.5
- ML GB -425 / CLE +320
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -8
- GB 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- GB: Elo 75.5%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- GB -337
- CLE +337 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 24.0 – 16.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1634 | 1364 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +44 | GB: Jordan Love · CLE: Joe Flacco, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +195 Elo | GB 75.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 73.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 77.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3227.1 | Points scored | 15.232nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.9 | Points allowed | 25.627th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+7.2 | Margin | −10.431st of 32 |
| 5th of 326.14 | Yards per play | 4.5731st of 32 |
| 5th of 325.16 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5924th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 6th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 2–626th of 32 |
| 14th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15166th of 32 |
| 4th of 321634 | Elo rating | 136429th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  GB |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–8 | 4–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 4–9 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.