Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing24/42, 200 YDS, 2 TD
- Austin EkelerRushing8 CAR, 17 YDS
- Zach ErtzReceiving6 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
Packers- Jordan LovePassing19/31, 292 YDS, 2 TD
- Josh JacobsRushing23 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- Tucker KraftReceiving6 REC, 124 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:53Deebo Samuel 10 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Jayden Daniels Pass to Luke McCaffrey for Two-Point Conversion)18–27
- Q46:42Brandon McManus 56 Yd Field Goal10–27
- Q48:57Tucker Kraft 8 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)10–24
- Q413:45Zach Ertz 20 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Matt Gay Kick)10–17
- Q36:37Brandon McManus 22 Yd Field Goal3–17
- Q24:27Matt Gay 51 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q27:34Josh Jacobs 2 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)0–14
- Q14:33Romeo Doubs 5 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:33Romeo Doubs 5 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)WSH 0 – 7 GB · GB 60% → 77% +17GB 60% → 77%+17 pts
- Q27:34Josh Jacobs 2 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)WSH 0 – 14 GB · GB 78% → 91% +13GB 78% → 91%+13 pts
- Q24:27Matt Gay 51 Yd Field GoalWSH 3 – 14 GB · WSH 8% → 13% +5WSH 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q413:45Zach Ertz 20 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Matt Gay Kick)WSH 10 – 17 GB · WSH 2% → 15% +12WSH 2% → 15%+12 pts
- Q48:57Tucker Kraft 8 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)WSH 10 – 24 GB · GB 89% → >99% +10GB 89% → >99%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- GB -3.5
- ML WSH +150 / GB -175
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -2
- GB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- GB: Elo 56.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- GB -157
- WSH +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 22.0 – 25.5 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1610 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +34 | +6 | WSH: Jayden Daniels · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +46 Elo | GB 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 57.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 61.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3228.5 | Points scored | 27.18th of 32 |
| 18th of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 19.96th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+5.5 | Margin | +7.25th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.71 | Yards per play | 6.145th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.40 | Yards allowed per play | 5.165th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 6–39th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321476 | Opponent Elo | 150912th of 32 |
| 9th of 321572 | Elo rating | 16104th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  WSH |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–7 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–7 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.