Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing22/31, 299 YDS, 2 TD
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing15 CAR, 77 YDS, 2 TD
- Dyami BrownReceiving6 REC, 98 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing23/40, 313 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing14 CAR, 105 YDS, 2 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving8 REC, 137 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:01Jake Bates 28 Yd Field Goal45–31
- Q47:31Jeremy McNichols 1 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)45–28
- Q413:29Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)38–28
- Q36:57Jahmyr Gibbs 8 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)31–28
- Q21:46Zach Ertz 5 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)31–21
- Q24:01Jameson Williams 61 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)24–21
- Q25:25Quan Martin 40 Yd Interception Return (Zane Gonzalez Kick)24–14
- Q26:23Terry McLaurin 58 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)17–14
- Q27:44Sam LaPorta 2 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)10–14
- Q210:55Brian Robinson Jr. 2 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)10–7
- Q13:50Zane Gonzalez 47 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q17:36Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:25Quan Martin 40 Yd Interception Return (Zane Gonzalez Kick)WSH 24 – 14 DET · WSH 35% → 58% +22WSH 35% → 58%+22 pts
- Q24:01Jameson Williams 61 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)WSH 24 – 21 DET · DET 41% → 64% +23DET 41% → 64%+23 pts
- Q21:46Zach Ertz 5 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)WSH 31 – 21 DET · WSH 37% → 61% +24WSH 37% → 61%+24 pts
- Q36:57Jahmyr Gibbs 8 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)WSH 31 – 28 DET · DET 29% → 57% +28DET 29% → 57%+28 pts
- Q413:29Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)WSH 38 – 28 DET · WSH 50% → 83% +32WSH 50% → 83%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- DET -8.5
- ML WSH +360 / DET -500
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -9
- DET 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- DET: Elo 78.8%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -382
- WSH +382 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 23.5 – 32.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 55.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1774 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +35 | — | WSH: Jayden Daniels · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +228 Elo | DET 78.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 77.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 79.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3228.5 | Points scored | 33.21st of 32 |
| 18th of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 20.17th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+5.5 | Margin | +13.11st of 32 |
| 10th of 325.71 | Yards per play | 6.233rd of 32 |
| 16th of 325.40 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7327th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 10th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 7–25th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–6 | 11–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 10–5 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.