New York Giants at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Russell WilsonPassing17/37, 168 YDS
- Russell WilsonRushing8 CAR, 44 YDS
- Malik NabersReceiving5 REC, 71 YDS
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing19/30, 233 YDS, 1 TD
- Jacory Croskey-MerrittRushing10 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- Deebo Samuel Sr.Receiving7 REC, 77 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:09Deebo Samuel 19 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)6–21
- Q31:43Graham Gano 55 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q26:14Jacory Croskey-Merritt 6 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)3–14
- Q213:57Graham Gano 21 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q17:00Zach Ertz 7 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Matt Gay Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:00Zach Ertz 7 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Matt Gay Kick)NYG 0 – 7 WSH · WSH 69% → 83% +14WSH 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q213:57Graham Gano 21 Yd Field GoalNYG 3 – 7 WSH · NYG 17% → 23% +6NYG 17% → 23%+6 pts
- Q26:14Jacory Croskey-Merritt 6 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)NYG 3 – 14 WSH · WSH 77% → 90% +13WSH 77% → 90%+13 pts
- Q31:43Graham Gano 55 Yd Field GoalNYG 6 – 14 WSH · NYG 6% → 11% +5NYG 6% → 11%+5 pts
- Q47:09Deebo Samuel 19 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)NYG 6 – 21 WSH · WSH 95% → >99% +5WSH 95% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Commanders 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -5.5
- ML NYG +220 / WSH -270
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -7.5
- WSH 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 74.0%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -237
- NYG +237 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 20.0 – 25.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1363 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +80 | +34 | NYG: Russell Wilson, usually Daniel Jones · WSH: Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +182 Elo | WSH 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 72.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 70.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3216.1 | Points scored | 28.55th of 32 |
| 21st of 3224.4 | Points allowed | 23.018th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−8.4 | Margin | +5.510th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.71 | Yards per play | 5.7110th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.61 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4016th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–5 | Road vs home | 7–25th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321522 | Opponent Elo | 148130th of 32 |
| 31st of 321363 | Elo rating | 155510th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  NYG |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–10 | 13–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 7–4 |
| Underdog | 5–10 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYG 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.