Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing31/39, 225 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- David MontgomeryRushing11 CAR, 25 YDS
- Sam LaPortaReceiving6 REC, 79 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing16/22, 188 YDS, 2 TD
- Josh JacobsRushing19 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- Romeo DoubsReceiving2 REC, 68 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:55Isaac TeSlaa 13 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)13–27
- Q44:22Brandon McManus 38 Yd Field Goal6–27
- Q47:57Josh Jacobs 3 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)6–24
- Q39:40Jake Bates 27 Yd Field Goal6–17
- Q28:34Jayden Reed 17 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)3–17
- Q29:27Jake Bates 30 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q13:58Brandon McManus 34 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q19:26Tucker Kraft 15 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:26Tucker Kraft 15 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)DET 0 – 7 GB · GB 51% → 68% +18GB 51% → 68%+18 pts
- Q13:58Brandon McManus 34 Yd Field GoalDET 0 – 10 GB · GB 69% → 76% +7GB 69% → 76%+7 pts
- Q29:27Jake Bates 30 Yd Field GoalDET 3 – 10 GB · DET 21% → 29% +7DET 21% → 29%+7 pts
- Q28:34Jayden Reed 17 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)DET 3 – 17 GB · GB 71% → 87% +15GB 71% → 87%+15 pts
- Q39:40Jake Bates 27 Yd Field GoalDET 6 – 17 GB · DET 8% → 14% +5DET 8% → 14%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- GB -1.5
- ML DET -105 / GB -115
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1
- GB 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- GB: Elo 45.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- GB -103
- DET +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 23.5 – 25.0 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1643 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +6 | DET: Jared Goff · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +29 Elo | DET 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 50.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3233.2 | Points scored | 27.18th of 32 |
| 7th of 3220.1 | Points allowed | 19.96th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+13.1 | Margin | +7.25th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.23 | Yards per play | 6.145th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.73 | Yards allowed per play | 5.165th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–0 | Road vs home | 6–39th of 32 |
| 12th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 15137th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321643 | Elo rating | 15727th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  DET |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–6 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–6 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–1 GB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.