Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Joe FlaccoPassing25/45, 199 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing10 CAR, 61 YDS
- Jerry JeudyReceiving4 REC, 51 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing19/29, 225 YDS, 4 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing11 CAR, 23 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving7 REC, 75 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:50Dylan Sampson 8 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Andre Szmyt Kick)17–41
- Q44:43DeAndre Hopkins 23 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)10–41
- Q48:19Roquan Smith 63 Yd Fumble Return (Tyler Loop Kick)10–34
- Q413:26Devontez Walker 24 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)10–27
- Q35:02Cedric Tillman 18 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Andre Szmyt Kick)10–20
- Q310:09Devontez Walker 2 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)3–20
- Q312:26Tyler Loop 32 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q20:29Andre Szmyt 38 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q211:13Tylan Wallace 15 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)0–10
- Q13:06Tyler Loop 43 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:06Tyler Loop 43 Yd Field GoalCLE 0 – 3 BAL · BAL 81% → 86% +5BAL 81% → 86%+5 pts
- Q211:13Tylan Wallace 15 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)CLE 0 – 10 BAL · BAL 85% → 94% +9BAL 85% → 94%+9 pts
- Q312:26Tyler Loop 32 Yd Field GoalCLE 3 – 13 BAL · BAL 91% → 95% +4BAL 91% → 95%+4 pts
- Q310:09Devontez Walker 2 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)CLE 3 – 20 BAL · BAL 95% → 99% +4BAL 95% → 99%+4 pts
- Q35:02Cedric Tillman 18 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Andre Szmyt Kick)CLE 10 – 20 BAL · CLE <1% → 5% +4CLE <1% → 5%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -12.5
- ML CLE +500 / BAL -800
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -10
- BAL 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 80.8%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -524
- CLE +524 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 17.0 – 29.5 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1378 | 1638 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +50 | +4 | CLE: Joe Flacco, usually Deshaun Watson · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +250 Elo | BAL 80.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 81.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 81.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 84.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3215.2 | Points scored | 30.53rd of 32 |
| 27th of 3225.6 | Points allowed | 21.29th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−10.4 | Margin | +9.23rd of 32 |
| 31st of 324.57 | Yards per play | 6.851st of 32 |
| 24th of 325.59 | Yards allowed per play | 5.196th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–8 | Road vs home | 6–27th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321523 | Opponent Elo | 15166th of 32 |
| 28th of 321378 | Elo rating | 16383rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CLE |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–12 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 10–7 |
| Underdog | 4–9 | — |
| Overs–unders | 6–10 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–2 BAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.