Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing31/43, 337 YDS, 3 TD
- Josh JacobsRushing22 CAR, 86 YDS, 2 TD
- Josh JacobsReceiving4 REC, 71 YDS
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing31/40, 319 YDS, 3 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing20 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- George PickensReceiving8 REC, 134 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- OT0:00Brandon McManus 34 Yd Field Goal40–40
- OT4:40Brandon Aubrey 22 Yd Field Goal37–40
- Q40:00Brandon McManus 53 Yd Field Goal37–37
- Q40:43George Pickens 28 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)34–37
- Q41:45Romeo Doubs 15 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)34–30
- Q44:50Javonte Williams 1 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)27–30
- Q411:39Josh Jacobs 18 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)27–23
- Q30:34Jake Ferguson 8 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)20–23
- Q37:08Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)20–16
- Q20:09George Pickens 15 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)13–16
- Q20:41Dak Prescott 2 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)13–9
- Q210:37Markquese Bell Defensive PAT Conversion13–2
- Q210:37Romeo Doubs 1 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus PAT blocked)13–0
- Q110:02Romeo Doubs 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:50Javonte Williams 1 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)GB 27 – 30 DAL · DAL 15% → 69% +55DAL 15% → 69%+55 pts
- Q41:45Romeo Doubs 15 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 34 – 30 DAL · GB 16% → 94% +78GB 16% → 94%+78 pts
- Q40:43George Pickens 28 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)GB 34 – 37 DAL · DAL <1% → 95% +94DAL <1% → 95%+94 pts
- Q40:00Brandon McManus 53 Yd Field GoalGB 37 – 37 DAL · GB 0% → 59% +59GB 0% → 59%+59 pts
- OT0:00Brandon McManus 34 Yd Field GoalGB 40 – 40 DAL · GB 0% → 59% +59GB 0% → 59%+59 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- GB -6.5
- ML GB -300 / DAL +250
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -3.5
- GB 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- GB: Elo 63.2%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- GB -254
- DAL +254 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 26.5 – 20.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1605 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +33 | GB: Jordan Love · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +94 Elo | GB 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 62.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 71.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3221.3 | Points scored | 24.712th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3214.7 | Points allowed | 30.729th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+6.7 | Margin | −6.025th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.26 | Yards per play | 5.737th of 32 |
| 1st of 323.73 | Yards allowed per play | 6.4831st of 32 |
| 20th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 10th of 321529 | Opponent Elo | 152112th of 32 |
| 5th of 321605 | Elo rating | 144823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  GB |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–8 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 1–0 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.