New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Russell WilsonPassing30/41, 450 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Cam SkatteboRushing11 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- Malik NabersReceiving9 REC, 167 YDS, 2 TD
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing38/52, 361 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing18 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving9 REC, 112 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT0:00Brandon Aubrey 46 Yd Field Goal37–40
- Q40:00Brandon Aubrey 64 Yd Field Goal37–37
- Q40:25Malik Nabers 48 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Graham Gano Kick)37–34
- Q40:52George Pickens 6 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)30–34
- Q42:44Wan'Dale Robinson 32 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Graham Gano Kick)30–27
- Q46:14Miles Sanders 4 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)23–27
- Q412:07Cam Skattebo 1 Yd Rush (Graham Gano Kick)23–20
- Q414:13Brandon Aubrey 44 Yd Field Goal16–20
- Q35:38Graham Gano 33 Yd Field Goal16–17
- Q37:20Javonte Williams 30 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)13–17
- Q22:11KaVontae Turpin 10 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)13–10
- Q25:37Malik Nabers 29 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Graham Gano Kick)13–3
- Q28:25Brandon Aubrey 51 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q11:05Graham Gano 33 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q16:11Graham Gano 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:14Miles Sanders 4 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)NYG 23 – 27 DAL · DAL 32% → 82% +49DAL 32% → 82%+49 pts
- Q42:44Wan'Dale Robinson 32 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Graham Gano Kick)NYG 30 – 27 DAL · NYG 10% → 79% +68NYG 10% → 79%+68 pts
- Q40:52George Pickens 6 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)NYG 30 – 34 DAL · DAL 6% → 98% +92DAL 6% → 98%+92 pts
- Q40:25Malik Nabers 48 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Graham Gano Kick)NYG 37 – 34 DAL · NYG <1% → 99% +99NYG <1% → 99%+99 pts
- Q40:00Brandon Aubrey 64 Yd Field GoalNYG 37 – 37 DAL · DAL 0% → 56% +56DAL 0% → 56%+56 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -4.5
- ML NYG +175 / DAL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -5.5
- DAL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 69.0%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -189
- NYG +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 20.0 – 24.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1346 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +73 | +37 | NYG: Russell Wilson, usually Daniel Jones · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +139 Elo | DAL 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 67.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3216.1 | Points scored | 20.621st of 32 |
| 21st of 3224.4 | Points allowed | 27.531st of 32 |
| 29th of 32−8.4 | Margin | −6.926th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.71 | Yards per play | 5.0425th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.61 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7729th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–5 | Road vs home | 2–730th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321522 | Opponent Elo | 150713th of 32 |
| 31st of 321346 | Elo rating | 148619th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  NYG |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–10 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 5–10 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYG 0–4 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.